Italian Serie A
2010-03-07 - Sampdoria vs Lazio
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Football : Italy : Serie A
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Sunday 7th March 2010 - kickoff 3pm
Sampdoria (7th) Home record 7-5-0
Sampdoria were defeated for the first time in six games last weekend. Being Italy, the 1-0 loss at Parma was of course controversial. Samp were denied a penalty that had been given by the linesman. The conspiracy theorists went turbo.
The real problem of course was the missing men for the blucerchiati. With front men Pazzini, Cassano and Pozzi all out, Samp were never going to trouble the scoresheet. Pazzini and Pozzi were suspended following the crazy game at Inter, and they now come back in for Lazio. Normal service should be resumed.
Notwithstanding a blip in November/December, and a few too many draws, Samp have been imperious at home. A renaissance in form since Christmas has propelled Samp into European contention again. Loan signings Storari and Guberti have done well and look shrewd business for bespectacled tactician Luigi Del Neri. The absence of Cassano continues to mystify, but while form is so good the home fans cannot complain.
Castellazi and Ziegler will miss out in defence for Samp, which is a negative.
Lazio (17th) Away record 2-6-5
Lazio are in serious danger of going down. They have more than enough quality in the squad to stay up, but off the field they are a shambles and this is impacting on performances. Contractual disputes and arguments with key players, management changes and fan boycotts mean morale is on the floor.
New manager Edy Reja inspired his team to a victory in his first game, but Lazio quickly regressed to their previous level of performance. Lazio have only won twice away from home, albeit they have managed six draws so at least they can make themselves hard to beat.
Reja not only has a morale crisis to deal with, he also has a debilitating injury list. Meghni, Dabo, Manfredini, Foggia, Bizzarri and Dias are all reported as missing. At least they get their goalkeeper back after suspension. They might need him.
Head to head
Sampdoria have the better of the head to heads having won three of the last six here, these three all coming in the last four years. Last year they were convincing 3-1 winners.
The betting Prediction
Facing Lazio holds no fear for anyone at the moment, unless you are a Lazio fan. They are a big club with some very good players, but they are in crisis off the field and they are not too big to go down. They only have two wins away from home this season, and against a Samp side so strong at the Marassi, there is nothing that suggests Lazio will get anything here.
Samp’s defeat at Parma can be excused, particularly when you consider the missing forwards, who return for this game.
Form, home/away form, team news and head to heads all favour the home side here.
This game appears to be priced up on reputation rather then stats. I make Samp 60% likely to win this and so they should be odds on. You can get 2.2 for the home side here which on the available evidence looks a good price.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Sampdoria to win at 2.20
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
A safer bet is Sampdoria AH -0.25 goals which is available at 1.80
