English Premier
2010-03-27 - Chelsea vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: England, Premier League
Saturday, 27th March 2010 - Kickoff 3pm
Chelsea
Everything is rosy in the garden at Stamford Bridge after their 0-5 win at Portsmouth on Wednesday night- well thats what you would believe after that game was completed and the media review of the game. However, the pressure remains to keep on the coat tails of Manchester United with a visit to Old Trafford next week.
Chelsea moved back into 2nd spot in the Premier League with their win and, perhaps significantly, they moved level with United in terms of goal difference. Only 1 point separates the top 2 at the moment so Chelsea will have a chance to move top of the League with a positive result here. They still have a formidable home record of 13-1-1 in the League this season and have scored 45 goals in those 15 games with 13 conceded. Chelsea are the top scorers at home so far this season.
While the Blues have a strong home record, they will be concerned that they have lost 2 of their last 4 games at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. Chelsea have won 9 of their last 11 at home in all competitions since the last draw at this stadium. They had scored at least 2 goals in 13 consecutive matches at the Bridge before being blanked by Inter Milan in their last home game.
Ricardo Carvalho has been ruled out for up to a month meaning Alex is going to continue alongside John Terry. Defensively they have been struggling with Branislav Ivanovic and Ashley Cole also missing from the first choice back line but Petr Cech should continue in goal.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa continue to be frustrated in March under Martin O'Neill with only 1 win in 3 years during this time of the year. While they have only lost the one game this year, that being the Carling Cup Final, but too many draws are making it more and more difficult for Villa to qualify for the Champions League.
They are currently sitting in 7th place in the Premier League, 4 points behind Tottenham Hotspur who hold the financially rewarding 4th spot at the moment. They have a respectable 6-5-3 away record so far this season, scoring 16 goals and only conceding 12 in those games. Villa have lost the least amount of games away from home and conceded the least amount of goals in the top flight at this point.
The Villains have lost only 1 game from their last 18 in all competitions but they have only won half. Of those 18 games, 10 have been in the Premier League and Villa have drawn 7 of those games. They are unbeaten in their last 4 away Premier League games and they have only conceded 1 goal in those games.
There are a few concerns for O'Neill coming into this game. Gabby Agbonlahor looks like he will miss another game while Richard Dunne, Emile Heskey and James Milner are all going to need late fitness tests as they struggle with injuries.
Head to Head
Chelsea and Aston Villa met earlier this season when Villa had to come from a goal down to beat the Blues 2-1 at Villa Park.
Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 7 games at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League against Aston Villa and have won 5 of those games including a 2-0 win here last season.
They were involved in a great 4-4 draw here 2 seasons ago, but generally the games do not involve a lot of goals with 5 of those 7 games ending with 2 goals or less.
6 of the last 8 matches both at Villa Park and Stamford Bridge between these 2 sides in the League have ended with 2 goals or less.
Prediction
Chelsea have been looking vulnerable in recent weeks although the win over Portsmouth may have papered over some of the cracks that begun appearing. Defensively they have been struggling with the loss of defenders and also the long term absence of Michael Essien to help protect them.
Aston Villa will be disappointed that they are seemingly letting the chance of 4th place slip for the second season in a row. The loss of Agbonlahor up front makes them a little pedestrian and if Milner misses out here it will be a huge loss. Martin O'Neill likes playing a counter attacking system, but without the pace of Agbonlahor, it makes it much more difficult for them and the Bridge remains a tough ground for them to visit.
I can see this game being settled by 1 goal as Villa look to break on the counter. Villa are defensively sound and will set out their team to protect the backdoor. I am not convinced that they can keep Chelsea out for 90 minutes and they are looking lethargic in attack. I am going to play the Under 2.5 goal option which is priced up a bit too big in my opinion in a match where it comes in more often than not. Chelsea may nick the win, but it could be close and may only take the 1 goal.
The Pick :
Chelsea 1-0 Aston Villa
