Spanish La Liga
2010-05-01 - Villarreal vs Barcelona
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Football : Spain : Primera Division
Saturday, 1st May 2010 - Kickoff 9pm
Match Analysis :
Barcelona will have to pick themselves up following a disappointing result in midweek against Inter Milan. Barcelona dominated the entire game controlling well over 70% of possession the entire game but they their lack of scoring appetite cost eliminated them from the Champions League.
Building up to today’s game against Villarreal, I am a little concerned regarding Pep Guardiola’s tactics that night against Inter Milan. With a man advantage on half time, Guardiola decided to bring of a central defender for a wing back instead of an up and out striker. Having made this mistake at half time, Guardiola follow with yet another mistake by replacing Ibrahimovic with Bojan. This clearly highlights that Guardiola might be a little big-headed following his first year success.
Doubts will definitely being to ponder in the Barcelona dressing room the senior players would definitely have spotted it. To make matters worse, Guardiola’s most influential midfielder, Xavi is doubtful ahead of the game. With Xavi being a big uncertainly, Barcelona will be missing the creativity he offers from midfield. Apart from him, Eric Abidal and Andres Iniesta are still out injured.
Juan Carlos Garrido on the other hand have been delight with the way his side fight back and score twice to overturn a 1 goal deficit by winning away to Racing Santander as they seek the final qualification spot for Europe next season.
Diego Lopez have been one of Villarreal key players this season as he has single handled kept his team in the game by producing some match winning saves. If the Yellow submarines were to pull off an upset here at the El-Madrigal, Diego Lopez will have to yet again be at his best and keep Barcelona at bay.
Brazilian forward Nilmar have been in good form lately and Dunga might well be watching him for the game. A good display here might not only secure him a spot in the National team for the World Cup but also a starting position.
Asian Handicap Analysis :
Under the asian handicap line this season, Villarreal are the 2nd best team in La Liga at home with a 65% winning rate. Mallorca is the only team that has a better winning rate at home this season under the handicap line.
Villarreal have paid out in 11 of their 17 home games this season - the 6 losses came against Mallorca, Real Madrid, Espanyol, Almeria and Osasuna. 3 of the defeats came at the opening weeks of the season. Since the turn of the year, Villarreal have only lost to Almeria and Osasuna on the handicap line.
On the other hand, Barcelona have won 9 out of their 17 away games this season under the handicap line, losing 7 and drawing 1.
Barcelona have lost 4 of their last 7 away games under the handicap line, winning only 2 of them in the last 7. Both wins came against Real Madrid and Zaragoza.
The Betting Verdict :
This is one of the potential upsets of the season and might change the outcome of La Liga anything but a Barcelona win might give Real Madrid to overtake Barcelona with 3 games left.
With Villarreal being so strong at home, it would be difficult for this Barcelona team to break. We have seen in recent weeks that Barcelona have not been as formidable as they have been last season.
Pep Guardiola and his team will be disappointed with themselves as they did not get the result they needed in midweek against Inter Milan who played the game for a man short for over an hour. The creativity is in the team but as we can see, they lack a finisher. Henry is well over is peak, we don’t know which Ibrahimovic will turn up, Pedro and Bojan are both still young and learning.
Clearly, Barcelona’s form is not as good as it was earlier this season and I believe they will find difficulty clearing the handicap. Barcelona are odds on to win the game but i really doubt they will win the game by a few goals. If they do so, Barcelona should win this game by a 3-4 goal score line.
Having said that Barcelona are odds on to win, i’m being brave this weekend and i’m prepared to back Villarreal at a +1 head start as Villarreal are a strong team at home this season and they are in good form.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Consider trying on a major upset with Villarreal winning, approx (6.00)or consider a double chance on Villarreal to win or draw.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Villarreal +1 AH head start (Main Bet)
