Champions League
2008-03-04 - AC Milan vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
UEFA Champions League - First knockout round
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza - Milan
Tuesday, 4th March 2008 - Kickoff 20:45 (CET)
A 0-0 draw in the first match means that this tie is still finely balanced, with AC Milan having home advantage in the second leg but Arsenal being able to progress with any sort of score-draw.
AC MILAN (ITALY)
Milan's season has been a strange one so far, with the successful World Club Championship in Japan meaning that several league games were postponed.
When Milan got back from Japan, they found that their City rivals Inter Milan had already established a stranglehold on the Scudetto, and AC's catch-up games had the strange air of a side who had already given up the title.
AC Milan are doing enough in Serie A to ensure a return to the Champions League next season, but with 4 draws in their last 5 domestic league games it is obvious that this tournament is their big target.
ARSENAL
Arsenal too are suffering from a run of draws, and that is having a serious effect on the Gunners bid to win the English Premier League. Arsenal still lead the competition but their lead has been cut to a single point.
It was another draw, the 0-0 result in the first leg of this tie, that means that Arsenal will come to Italy needing to score to progress - or take their chances in a penalty shootout lottery.
The Gunners had much the better of the first game, looking more dangerous and have a couple of good chances - but of course Milan were always satisifed with an away draw - so that can be deceiving.
Arsenal's recent away record in Europe is good at 8-4-3 over the last 3 seasons, but they will need to be at their very best to come away from the San Siro with a positive result.
HEAD TO HEAD
When these two sides met in the European SuperCup over a decade ago, Milan won the trophy by winning the home match 2-0 after drawing the first match 0-0 in London.
Is history going to repeat?
THE SITUATION
Experience is so valuable in these pressure filled games - and AC Milan have the obvious advantage there. But the 0-0 result wasn't the best scoreline for Milan and they will need to be careful as conceding an Arsenal goal now would see Milan needing to win in 90 minutes.
Arsenal though have been in this situation before, back in 1980 they faced Juventus in a European semi-final and drew the first leg 1-1 in London.
Juventus played for the 0-0 draw which would take them them through, and Arsenal's Paul Vaessen popped up with a shock 89th minute winner to see the English side through 1-0 on the night.
Anything can happen here - and with the first goal being so important we could see a cagey opening 45 minutes.
TEAM NEWS
AC MILAN :
Paolo Maldini, Alessandro Nesta, Andrea Pirlo, Kaká and Filippo Inzaghi are all expected to start after being rested against Lazio.
However, Clarence Seedorf, who strained a hamstring in the first half of that match, may join Emerson (shin), Marek Jankulovski (knee), Dida (back) and Ronaldo (knee) on the sidelines.
ARSENAL :Injuries have deprived Arsenal of Eduardo (leg), Tomáš Rosický (hamstring) and Kolo Touré (calf).
But Abou Diaby is fit again and Robin van Persie has travelled with the squad to give the Premier League leaders what Arsčne Wenger described as a "psychological edge".
THE VERDICT
Despite that, I have to make AC Milan the favourites for the match, as the Italian side has won their last 4 European games here against some very good sides.
The odds against (2.20) price on Milan to win seems a big one to me - and is the value play for this match.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
AC Milan 1-0 Arsenal
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take MILAN to win in 90 minutes.(of course I'd be happy to be wrong here)
