SPANISH LA LIGA BETTING PICK - BARCELONA V REAL MADRID

Spanish La Liga

2009-11-29 - Barcelona vs Real Madrid

A Sports Betting Pick by Shady

This is the one of the games we’ve been waiting for in Spain, the “el-clasico” between Barcelona Vs Real Madrid.

Barcelona (2nd) Home 5-0-0 19:5

Barcelona have been playing below average lately. Pep Guardiola’s side only managed to win two out of their last five league games. With Real Madrid knocking Barcelona off the top of the league table last weekend, it is crucial that Guardiola’s side avoid another set back here today.

Guardiola will go into this crucial game without Gabi Milito and Yaya Toure who is down with Swine flu while Messi and Ibrahimovic are both doubtful ahead of the game. Guardiola says he will wait till the very last minute before he decides to select his starting eleven and claims that Barcelona can beat Madrid with or without Messi.

Guardiola is likely to start once again with his preferred 4-3-3 formation. Victor Valdes will start in goal protected by Daniel Alves, Puyol, Pique and Ebidal. In midfield, Sergi Busquet, Xavi and Seydou Keita will form a dynamic midfield trio while Henry, Ibrahimovic and Messi or Pedro will start up front.

Real Madrid (1st) Away 3-1-1 9:4

Manuel Pellegrini will be delighted to welcome back Ronaldo after missing out on the previous ten games. Madrid struggle to break opponents down in the first few games of Ronaldo’s absentee. With Ronaldo playing in midweek, Ronaldo is expected to feature in the starting line-up.

Pellegrini will be without Van Nistelrooy, Metzelder and Guti while Sergio Ramos and Raul Albiol are both doubtful ahead of this game. Pellegrini has insisted that his side would not be happy with a draw as their main goal is to walk away with all three points here today.

Real Madrid are likely to start with a 4-2-4 formation with Casillas in goal protected by Arbeloa, Pepe, Garay and Ramos. In midfield, Xabi Alonso and Diarra will start in a more holding midfield role allowing Ronaldo, Kaka, Higuain and Benzema or Raul to rotate up front.

Key Players :

Barcelona have been relying heavily on both Ibrahimovic and Messi to deliver them the goals this season. Both of them have seven goals each to their name. With both of these players doubtful, I am a little worried for Barcelona as where they goals would come from if both fails to pass the late fitness test.

Real Madrid on the other hand have been relying on Ronaldo at the start of the season. However with Ronaldo missing the last 10 games for Real Madrid, the burden has then shifted to Kaka, Benzema and Higuain. With all four of these players expected to start, it will be interesting to see who will be the one that steps up. I personally fancy Ronaldo to do the job!

Asian Handicap Analysis :

Under the asian handicap line this season, Barcelona have won four out of their five home games. Their only loss came at the hands of Almeria. Apart from that, Barcelona have sweep past Gijon, Atletico Madrid, Zaragoza and Mallorca.

On the other hand, Real Madrid have won three of their five away games under the asian handicap line this season. The win came against Espanyol, Villarreal, and Atletico Madrid while the lost to Gijon and Sevilla on the handicap.

Head to Head

           Played Win Draw Lost GF GA
Real Madrid 158   68   30   60 262 243
Barcelona   158   60   30   68 243 262

The Betting Verdict :

Barcelona are firm favourites to win the game as they have home advantage. However with Messi, Ibrahimovic all doubtful and Barcelona playing slightly below average lately besides the 2-0 win against Inter, my money will have to be with Real Madrid.

Real Madrid aren’t very lucky at the Nou Camp despite having a couple of good results here. Nevertheless, Real Madrid have a better overall record against Barcelona.

With Real Madrid accepting a massive +0.75 head start on the handicap, I can't see a reason why should I not accept this generous head start.

If the handicap was placed at level ball or Barcelona -0.25, I would consider on taking Barcelona but as it is now, i have to say the value would be on Real Madrid as Barcelona would need to win by 2 clear goals if we were to lose the full bet.

The Statistics :

BEST BETTING TIP :

As this would be a fiery game, consider trying over in the number of cards (Side Bet)