NCAA Football
2010-09-04 - Oregon State Beavers at TCU Horned Frogs
A Sports Betting Pick by Goober
Venue : Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Saturday September 4th 2010 - Kickoff 7:45 EDT
Aired on ESPN in the USA
One of the best games of the opening weekend kicks off Saturday night as preseason #6 TCU hosts #24 Oregon State. The game will be played at the year-old 100,000-seat Dallas Cowboys Stadium that will be full of TCU supporters.
#6 TCU Horned Frogs
TCU finished the regular season 12-0 last year before losing in the Fiesta Bowl 17-10 to Boise State. TCU had climbed all the way to #3 in the rankings before that game. The Horned Frogs return most of their starters from last year, which is the reason they begin the season so high in the rankings.
Coach Gary Patterson has proven himself to be one of the best college coaches around and returns for another season. TCU has compiled an 85-28 record since Patterson took over at the end of the 2000 season. TCU is 53-11 since the beginning of the 2005 season.
TCU will be led by senior quarterback Andy Dalton on offense, who threw for 23 touchdowns last year. He has taken TCU to a 29-8 record in his starts. TCU will also have a potent running game with Matthew Tucker (8 TDs last year) and Ed Wesley (4 TDs last year).
The TCU defense did lose its best two players to the NFL after last season, but the bulk of the defense returns and should still be very good. That is always Patterson’s emphasis.
#24 Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State finished last season at 8-5 after a 44-20 loss to BYU in the Las Vegas bowl. They are coached by Mike Riley, who has led the Beavers to a 64-47 record over two different stints with the team.
Oregon State will be starting a new QB this year, Ryan Katz. He has only appeared in 4 games prior to this season. So the Beavers will rely heavily on their running game and Jacquizz Rodgers, who scored 21 TDs last year (3rd in the nation for running backs).
Oregon State will also return eight starters on defense.
Head to Head
These two teams have never met before.
TCU has played 2 other games against Pac-10 teams in the last three years and has won them both.
Oregon State has played 4 games against Mountain West opponents in the last 3 years and has won 2 and lost 2.
The Betting Verdict :
TCU has normally started seasons strongly while Oregon State usually finishes stronger. TCU was only 2-2 in its first 4 games in 2007, but won its first 4 games in 2008 and its first 12 in 2009. On the other hand, Oregon State began 2-3 in 2006, 2007, and 2008 and 2-2 last year.
So it all adds up to a home win to start the season for TCU. The only question should be the final margin. The line has been set at 13.5 points.
Although I am a TCU supporter and hope they win by 50, Oregon State should be good enough to make this competitive. Oregon State is 23-9 against the spread in their last 32 games.
The Pick :
TCU win 24-13
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take TCU to win on the money-line, but not by enough to cover the spread.
