NFL Football
2011-01-02 - Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Football : United States : NFL : Week 17
Sunday 2 January 2011 - Kickoff 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Kansas City Chiefs (10-5)
I have to give Kansas City some credit this season as they won the AFC West with a game to spare. Todd Haley ensured his team took advantage of what looked like a favourable schedule, but Matt Cassel, Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles have all been brilliant as has Dwayne Bowe. This game has become meaningless in a sense, with the Chiefs either finishing 3rd or 4th seed in the AFC and are due to have a tough 1st Round game when they can host either the New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers.
Once a Division is wrapped up, talk inevitably turns to how much time the starters will receive in these games. With Cassel only recently returning to the line up, I do not expect him to play the whole game which means Brodie Croyle comes in. Haley has kept his cards close to his chest this week and has not declared his hand, leaving us with a wait and see philosophy into what the Chiefs will do.
Personally, while I think the fans will be desperate to put one over their old rivals at home, it would be a risk to play all the starters in a game that is essentially meaningless but is still going to be very physical.
The Chiefs very much rely on their strong running game. Jamaal Charles is averaging 2nd all time behind legendary Jim Brown this season for yards per carry, atlhough both he and Thomas Jones were kept in check in the first meeting with the Raiders.
Kansas City also have a young Defense and Todd Haley has used the word 'developing' a lot this week in talks about his team. The experience of the Play Offs looks to stand the team in good stead for the future although they are going to have a tough schedule next season.
Oakland Raiders (7-8)
Finally, the Oakland Raiders have a half decent season and the chance to avoid a losing season for the first time since they last reached the SuperBowl in 2002. The Raiders will become the first team to win all their Divisional games and fail to make the Play Offs with a victory here. The team is 5-0 in Divisional games but 2-8 elsewhere although there have been significant improvements this season.
A win here would also be the first time the Raiders have sweeped their Division since 1976, the first time they ever won the SuperBowl. They too like pounding the football straight at their opponents and have been able to wear down all the teams within the AFC West this season. Darren McFadden was close to being labelled as another 1st round bust for Oakland, but has come alive this season, making a real impact out of the backfield both Receiving and Rushing.
The Defense has also improved with the amount of pressure they can get on the opposition QBs and they have slowed down teams Rushing attacks, most notably in the win over the Chiefs earlier this season.
Tom Cable has really worked well as the Head Coach of this franchise and finally has them going in the right direction. He is in the final year of his contract, but if the Raiders finish at .500 this season, it would be a real surprise if he is not called back for at least another year.
Head to Head
Oakland are 4-2 in the series over the last 4 seasons, and will look to continue the success road teams have had in the series.
The road team is 19-7-2 against the spread in recent meetings, and Oakland have won on their last 3 visits to Arrowhead.
Kansas City are 5-2 against the spread at home this season. Oakland are 4-3 on the road.
Other Interesting Notes
Kansas City are 11-19 against the spread in their last 30 home games. They are 4-9 against the spread as the favourite.
The Chiefs are 0-4 against the spread in their last games against teams from the AFC West.
Oakland are 10-2 against the spread the week after an ATS loss.
The Raiders are 6-0 against the spread against teams from the AFC West.
Most of the money in Vegas is landing on the Chiefs at around 72%
Prediction
It is hard to guage how much time the Chiefs' starters are going to receive here, but I thought this game would have been a tough one for them if they were due to play the starters throughout and it had more meaning on the line.
Oakland have been built to attack teams in the AFC West and they have had great success doing this this season. They will look to run the ball as much as possible to pound their opponents and this could force Todd Haley to rest players to avoid injury a week before the Play Offs.
I am going to take the Raiders to at least keep this game close. It is entirely possible that Todd Haley rests his starters and Oakland sneak another win on the road at Arrowhead, but I will take the points only.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Kansas City Chiefs 24-27 Oakland Raiders
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take a chance on Oakland Raiders +3.5 Points
