NFL Football
2011-01-02 - Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Football : United States : NFL : Week 17
Sunday 2 January 2011 - Kickoff 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Houston Texans (5-10)
The Houston Texans will not need reminding of what happened the last time they played Jacksonville- a little over a month ago we saw the most improbable victory of the season when a 50 yard Hail Mary pass from David Garrard was knocked down but a Texans Defender... straight to the Jaguar WR who walked into the EndZone for the win. Now the Texans season may be over, but Gary Kubiak would like to end the season on a high and end the Jaguars lingering Play Off hopes. With Kubiak's job on the line, I would expect the Texans to play hard.
A number of close losses will not have helped the mood in Houston which is set to record its worst season since 2006 when they finished 6-10, the first season Kubiak was in charge. The Offense, a stronghold of the Head Coach, has not really struggled at all, but the Defense cannot seem to stop a thing. The Texans own the worst Passing Defense in the NFL, giving up over 275 yards per game through the air alone.
Houston have been leading or tied going into the 4th Quarter of games in 7 of the last 8 games they have played. They have lost 6 of those games and it is clear the team needs to finish games in a much stronger fashion. Another loss for Houston would see them have their longest losing streak in 4 years.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
As much as Houston will remember the last meeting between the teams, Jacksonville will also know that win has kept them in with a slight chance of making the Play Offs this season. The Jaguars need to win this game and hope Tennessee can surprise Indianapolis. Jack Del Rio wants to see his side at least post the win, record the winning season, and hope they can sneak into the postseason, especially with his job being reviewed at the end of the season, whenever that may be.
David Garrard set up the 50 yard TD pass in the win over Houston, but will be ruled out of this game after undergoing surgery on his finger. His place at QB will be taken by former Bill Trent Edwards, who played in the 3-30 home loss to Tennessee. Edwards had only 140 yards passing in that game with 2 Interceptions, but has had more time to learn the Offense and should have more success against a porous Houston Defense.
Another big loss for the Jaguars is Maurice Jones-Drew. The RB missed the loss to Washington last Sunday and is expected to be ruled out again this week. Jones-Drew had scored 3 TDs in a win here at Reliant Stadium last season for Jacksonville.
The Jaguars look to end the season on a high after losing their last 2 games to effectively end their Play Off ambitions. They had a players only meeting on Monday to pump themselves up for one more big effort.
Head to Head
Jacksonville have won 4 of the last 5 games between the teams in the series. However, they have failed to record back to back wins here at Reliant Stadium and had lost the 3 previous games here before the win last season.
Houston are 2-5 against the spread at home this season. Jacksonville are 4-3 on the road.
Other Interesting Notes
Houston are 30-16 against the spread when losing 2 games in a row.
The Texans are just 2-7 against the spread against teams in the AFC.
Jack Del Rio is just 1-6 against the spread in the final week of the regular season.
The Jaguars are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games. They are 5-2 when playing on the road against teams with losing records.
79% of the money is landing on the Houston Texans as the Jaguars look a little beaten up.
Prediction
No one will ever get rich when betting on teams with losing records as the favourites, but I feel Houston has to be the way to go. Their Offense is capable of putting up points and the team has enough respect for Gary Kubiak to want to keep him in the Head Coach role.
Also, the way the Texans lost in the last game in Florida cannot be understated and they are sure to want revenge against a Divisional rival and end their Play Off ambitions.
Jacksonville do want to win this game, and NEED to win this game if they want to make the Play Offs. Teams who need to win are under more pressure and they are losing their 2 most valuable players on the Offense and I cannot see how they keep up with Houston here.
I am taking the home team to win and cover.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Houston Texans 27-17 Jacksonville Jaguars
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Houston Texans -3 Points @ 1.95 (Paddy Power)
