ENGLISH PREMIER BETTING PICK - MANCHESTER CITY V SWANSEA CITY

English Premier

2011-08-15 - Manchester City vs Swansea City

A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps

MANCHESTER CITY - SWANSEA CITY
Football : England : Premier League
Monday 15th August - Kickoff 8:00pm

Manchester City

Despite coming 3rd and winning the FA Cup last season Manchester City disappointed and under achieved for me. Whenever they got close to the top to challenge United they faulted and crumbled eventually finishing a good 9 points off the Champions. Now don't get me wrong the cup win was good and they finished the season very strongly but with more buying this season Mancini's men must mount a stronger title challenge. If they finish 9 points off the top again I can't see Mancini having a job this time next year.

That being said lets not jump the gun here, City could end up champions in May and with the team they have it's definitely within their ability. Some pundits believe that the FA Cup win ultimately saved Mancini's job as it ended the 35 year hoodoo of no trophies for the club and the owners are hoping this could open the floodgates for many more to follow.

The biggest news of the summer has been the ongoing exit of top scorer and club captain Carlos Tevez. The Argentinean was superb last season and for me the player of the season his 21 goals and numerous assists got City out of trouble on numerous occasions and for me he's a tough player to replace.

The tragic thing for City fans is that apparently it's his wife that doesn't like the area and won't live there with their young kids. Instead he wants to go back home to Argentina or even Brazil, although only Corinthians have placed a bid this summer and that was rejected. It now seems that Carlos will end up in Italy or even stay at City until the January window. He still remains a City player but for how long noone knows and he will miss this game on Monday night as he was given extended leave following the Coppa America.

With the bad news out the way the good news is that as expected City has spend big in the transfer window with Sergio Aguero (Atletico Madrid, £38m), Gael Clichy (Arsenal, £7m), Stefan Savic (Partizan Belgrade, £6m), and Costel Pantilimon (Poli Timisoara, undisclosed) all joining the club.

Aguero is expected to be Tevez's replacement and has all the qualities to succeed in this division, some say he may need time to settle but I think he'll hit the ground running from day one. The bad news for City fans is that he's lacking match practice and is expected to start Monday's game from the bench.

The other signings are all solid enough with Clichy a very fast and experienced left back and Savic a huge up and coming no nonsense centre half that will provide cover for Kompany, Lescott and Kolo Toure.

Some stats last season, City had the most clean sheets with 18 clean including 12 at home. To show how impressive that is only six other teams had 12 clean sheets in total. At Eastlands not many score and already that gives City a huge psychological advantage against their opponents.

Team news is that Carlos Tevez as mentioned above will sit this one out and Aguero will start on the bench. It means Dzeko will start up front and he will be confident following his goal against United in last week's Community Shield. Supporting him we shall see an attacking trio of Balotelli, Silva and Milner with De Jong and Yaya Toure playing behind them. Kolo Toure is still banned so Kompany and Lescott will start at the back and i'm expecting Clichy to start at left back over Kolarov.

Predicted Manchester City Lineup:
Hart, Richards, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy; De Jong, Milner; Silva, Y Toure, Balotelli; Dzeko.

Swansea City

Newly promoted Swansea have truly been given a baptism of fire in their debut Premiership game as they travel to Eastlands and face title challengers Manchester City.

Being a Monday night game this will be in front of the Sky cameras and many are looking forward to seeing the attacking, free flowing football that served them so well in last season's Championship. My fear for them however will be if they crumbled against such a superstar side and if they go a goal down early it could get ugly.

Swansea secured Premiership football by beating Reading in the playoff final and their nickname of "Swansealona" tells you all you need to know about how they play their football. Now playing attacking football in the Championship is one thing but in this division they might get found out. Blackpool being the perfect example of how trying to play your way out of the bottom doesn't always get it done.

With a 5 man midfield, all very comfortable on the ball Brendan Rodgers' side plays from the back and looks to retain a very high ball possession throughout the game. Rodgers an understudy to Jose Mourinho at Chelsea is very keen on keeping the ball and this won't change throughout the year it's very much do or die for the Welsh side.

I like the Swansea signings Michel Vorm (Utrecht, £1.5M), Danny Graham (Watford, £3.5m), Leroy Lita (Middlesbrough, £1.75m), Wayne Routledge (Newcastle, undisclosed), Jose Moreira (Benfica, undisclosed), Steven Caulker (Totteham, loan).

Graham was the top scorer in the Championship last season and has scored goals at every level, the only doubt is that he's unproven in the Premiership. He managed to get his goals last year in a poor Watford side so with the creative players in this side he should get his chances. Lita is another striker added to the squad and he comes off a good season with Middlesborough, the last time he was in the Premiership with Reading he had a good season and is a decent #2 striker.

The signing of Routledge is a good signing. Despite never really getting a chance in the league he has been superb at Championship level and I feel he's a better and more mature player these days to cope with the demands of this high tempo league.

At the other end the signings of Moreira/Vorn in goal and Caulker from Spurs a centre half adds more depth to this side. Vorn and Caulker are expected to be in the first eleven and they join an already solid defence that was one of the best in last year's Championship.

Team news for Swansea is that Taylor n ruled out indefinitely with a suspension whilst there are doubts over Monk and Bodde. Skipper monk is the biggest worry with a foot injury and isn't expected to start meaning Caulker will get his debut along side Williams. Other debutantes should include Vorm in goal with Graham up top, Routledge is pushing for a start but Dobbie may get the nod.

Predicted United Lineup:
Vorm, Rangel, Caulker, Williams, Tate; Britton, Allen, Dobbie; Dyer, Sinclair, Graham

The Betting Verdict

Like with most promoted sides you never know how they will start, ie do a Blackpool and play like a top 6 side for a few months then fade or struggle from day one as QPR looked like on Saturday.

I'm of the persuasion that Swansea is the best of the 3 promoted sides and seem the most organised going into the season. That being said away to a City side that must be hurting following a 3-2 defeat to rivals United in last weeks Community Shield is a horrible start and I can't look beyond the home side.

There is so much talent going forward for Mancini's side that you get the inevitability that they WILL score at least once and with that amazing defensive record behind them one may be enough although I can see them grabbing a second. Home Win.

Good Luck.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

The Manchester City win at 1.35 @ Pinnaclesports seems fair