Dutch EreDivision
2011-09-24 - Ajax vs FC Twente
A Sports Betting Pick by Billie
Football : Netherlands : Eredivsie
Saturday 24th September 2011 - Kickoff 20:45
Ajax Amsterdam
Ajax's recent fixture list has a tough one. They already drew agains Olympique Lyon (CL) and PSV (no.5 Eredivisie), and in the next four days they play against Eredivisie leaders FC Twente and Spanish giant Real Madrid.
A difficult programme might be an understatement, and the results haven’t been terrific for Ajax who tried to go for the win against Lyon but only got one point.
However, in their last Eredivisie match against PSV they couldn’t complain with their earned point. PSV was better overall, but couldn’t obtain their lead twice, and couldn’t score the winner after the second Ajax equaliser.
In the midweek cup match against amateurs VV Noordwijk they progressed without excelling after the 2-1 away victory. It was not a real surprise they didn’t shine as several starters were rested and some reserves was given their chance, with 3 players making their official debut. Important players as Janssen, Sigthorsson and van der Wiel didn’t play at all, and midfielder Eriksen played a slim quarter of an hour.
Unfortunately winger Ozbiliz who was just back from an injury left the pitch after 30 minutes with an ankle injury, and he is not included in the squad for this match. Winger Ebecilio returns after a suspension, just as Anita and Sulejmani who return after an injury.
Ajax is far from stable in their back line, conceding in all of their 6 league matches so far. They do have enough quality to counter the many conceded goals by scoring numerous themself, which is backed by their gd of 20-9(!) after six matches.
FC Twente
FC Twente didn’t have any problems disposing ADO Den Haag in their last league match even though they were down 1-0 quick after the match started. With a 1-1 score at halftime ADO was dreaming of bringing a point home but the 5-2 final score was an expected result.
This means that FC Twente are still (joint) top of the table with 15 points out of 6 matches. They strolled through their cup match against the amateurs of de Zwaluwen with a final score of 8-0.
In their cup match defender Buysse went off injured but he is fit for this match. Goalie Mihailov was ill but is also ready for this match.
Now Twente are returning to the Amsterdam Arena, where they lost the title on the final round of the Eredivisie last season. In their previous visit to the Arena, they managed to beat Ajax 2-1 for the Supercup, where the departe Ruiz scored the winner.
Twente are playing an offensive game not free from risks. I’m not expecting to start as attacking as in their home matches, but still they will continue to do what they have done so far, which is trying to play their own game.
It has worked out well at times, but at other times they have been totally outplayed (Benfica), or got stung with their offensive intentions (Roda JC). The last four league matches involving Twente ended with both teams scoring, and they have a goal difference of 18-6.
The Betting Verdict
It might be clear where I’m going to, yes it’s goals.
I see both teams scoring here, but there is something that puts me off a bet “Both to score”. I feel this is a bet where the only advantage is backing the 1-1, but in the situation a team leads 2-0 it’s a clear disadvantage.
In this case the scenario for over 2.5 goals looks a better bet.
