Connecticut Huskies at West Virginia Betting pick | 2011-10-08

NCAA Football

2011-10-08 - Connecticut Huskies at West Virginia

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Connecticut Huskies @ West Virginia Mountaineers
United States: NCAA Football Week 6
Saturday 8 October 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

A Big East clash between two teams that look to be going in different directions takes place in Morgantown as the Connecticut Huskies (2-3) visit the West Virginia Mountaineers (4-1). Both teams will be playing their opening Conference game of the season.

Dana Holgorsen had wanted his West Virginia team to play with a much more balance Offense ever since he took over the Head Coach job, but they had struggled to get their running game going until last week when Dustin Garrison took off for 291 yards in a 55-10 win over Bowling Green.

There are hopes for the Mountaineers that this is going to be the norm rather than the exception as that will also reduce the pressure on Geno Smith, a QB who is considered in the top level amongst all in the nation. Smith has already thrown for over 1700 yards this season along with 12 TD passes and 3 Interceptions.

The running game had struggled to get going in the first 4 weeks of the season when they averaged just 76 yards per game on the ground, although there is genuine hope that Garrison can provide something a little more productive off the ground.

It is clear that the Mountaineers would become the clear favourites to win the Big East if they can get something going on the ground as that will open up the passing lanes and make them very tough to stop for Defenses in this Conference.

The first to try and stop this new found piece of the Offense will the be the Connecticut Huskies who have only allowed an average of 75 yards per game on the ground this season. However, they come into this game having given up 479 yards through the air last week as they struggled to stop Western Michigan.

That was the most yards this unit have given up through the air this season, with only Iowa managing more than 200 passing yards before that, but it is not good preparation for Geno Smith. The Defensive Line has found a way to get good penetration, averaging 8 tackles for a loss and 3 sacks per game this season.

Johnny McEntee has performed well for Connecticut under Center, but he struggles to complete enough passes at just over 50% for the season and he has thrown 4 Interceptions alongside his 6 TD passes. McEntee had his best performance of the season last week as he threw 4 TD passes and over 300 yards through the air.

The Huskies will look to run against this Mountaineers Defense that has allowed 127 yards per game on the ground. Lyle McCombs should get plenty of the ball to try and add to his 502 rushing yards this season and to improve on the 4 TDs he has scored.

Doug Rigg (LB) will be missing for the Mountaineers after breaking a bone in his wrist against LSU and he is expected to return after the bye week next week.

Connecticut's Offensive Line has struggled at times to keep McEntee upright and will be missing Jimmy Bennett (LT) after he tore his ACL in practice last week.

Blidi Wreh-Wilson (CB) remains sidelined after injuring himself in the win over Buffalo and his absence could be highlighted by the West Virginia Offense as it was by Western Michigan.

Head to Head

Connecticut beat West Virginia by 3 points at home last season after losing 6 games in a row in the series.

Connecticut have won the last 2 games against the spread after losing 5 in a row before that.

West Virginia have won the last 3 home games against the Huskies, and they are 2-1 against the spread although losing the latest of those games.

West Virginia are 2-3 against the spread this season, Connecticut are 1-4.

Other Interesting Notes

West Virginia are 2-9-1 against the spread in their last 12 home games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more. They are 3-7-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team with a losing record.

Connecticut are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games as the underdog. They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record at home.

Prediction

I am going to back the West Virginia Mountaineers to win and cover for the following reasons:

First, Geno Smith is a QB that should be able to take full advantage of the Connecticut Secondary that is missing Wreh-Wilson and I expect him to have more success than Western Michigan last week.

Second, the Huskies will have to at least pay respect to the potential of the Mountaineers running game after last week and that will open up more lanes for Smith.

Third, the Mountaineers Defense can force turnovers and I expect they will get Johnny McEntee to make a couple of mistakes.

Fourth, the Huskies rushing game should have a good day, but if they get behind early, they will have to move away from that and that shifts things back in West Virginia's favour.