English Premier
2011-10-15 - Norwich City vs Swansea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 15 October 2011 - Kickoff 3pm
Norwich City
Paul Lambert must have been a little disappointed his side did not show more composure in front of goal in their last Premier League game at Old Trafford when they had the Champions reeling for much of the game. On the other hand, that performance must surely have Lambert believing his side is good enough to survive in the League this season.
Norwich may have lost at Old Trafford, but they actually moved up the League table to 9th thanks to QPR's heavy defeat at Fulham. The Canaries have picked up 8 points so far this season, a respectable tally, and have a 1-1-1 record at Carrow Road, scoring 3 goals and conceding 3 goals.
The team had won back to back Premier League games, winning games at Bolton and had home against Sunderland, before that loss to United. Norwich are yet to keep a clean sheet at home this season, conceding 1 goal in each of their games, but they will feel confident having won their last home game against Sunderland.
James Vaughan is a long term absentee, while Daniel Ayala is not expected back until the end of the month. Elliot Ward and Zak Whitbread are both expected back in the squad this week.
Swansea
Swansea are beginning to look more and more comfortable in the top flight and Brendan Rodgers must be feeling better after a rough start to the new campaign. The team have now started scoring goals and winning games and that will only increase the confidence of the players.
The Swans won their last game before the international break which allowed them to move up to 10th in the League table, just 1 place below Norwich courtesy of an inferior goal difference. There has been a contrast in Swansea's home and away defensive records as they have kept clean sheets in all 4 home games, but conceded 9 goals in 3 away games while scoring just 1 goal.
Swansea have won their last 2 home games in the League, but they did also take a 4-1 loss at Chelsea between those games. They also had a strong performance when losing 1-0 at Arsenal, but the lack of goals was a concern at that time. They had failed to score in their first 4 League games, the Arsenal game being the last of those, but Swansea have since scored 6 goals in 3 games.
Steven Caulker and Alan Tate are both long term absentees, while Kemy Agustien is out until next month at the earliest. Leon Britton should be available for selection.
Head to Head
Swansea have won 3 of the last 4 games between the teams over the last 3 seasons, all 4 meetings taking place in the Championship.
Norwich did beat Swansea 2-0 at home last season, but the other 3 games have all seen at least 3 goals scored, including a 2-3 win for the Swans in the 2008/09 season.
Prediction
I was a little surprised to see the 'Over 2.5 Goals' market being priced up as high as it has been, even before seeing the head to head record between the teams, as both like to get the ball down and play attacking football.
I think the reasoning for the layers is that neither side has a real '20 goal a season' kind of striker, but they have both been creating chances in their games this season and recently have been finding the net.
Norwich have scored 4 goals in their last 3 games, and could have added to that tally when failing to score at United, while Swansea have been free scoring since breaking their duck against Stoke.
I fully expect both sides will be able to create chances against the suspect defences the other has, so I will back the 'Overs' at what looks like a big price.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Norwich City 2-1 Swansea
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10
