NFL Football
2011-10-17 - Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 6
Monday 17 October 2011 - Kick Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a big AFC East clash with both teams desperate for a win as the Miami Dolphins (0-4) visit the New York Jets (2-3) on Monday Night Football.
The Jets have lost 3 games in a row and face a battle in the AFC East that they were not expecting as the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots are both 2 games ahead already. While the Patriots are expected to be amongst the leading contenders for the Play Offs, the Bills are just complicating matters.
While New York suggest they are not worrying right now, they are in a position where they just cannot afford another loss, especially when all the hype has been about this team winning the SuperBowl for the last couple of seasons.
The major problem for the Jets has been the Offense, with reports coming out last week that Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason had all voiced their complaints about Offensive Co-Ordinator Brian Schottenheimer and they struggled again in New England. Mason was benched for the most part of that game, and has since been traded to Houston.
Mark Sanchez is only completing 56% of his passes and has consistently struggled to move the chains while the Offensive Line has not really offered him enough time and you have to think Cameron Wake will be itching to add to his sack tally.
A real struggle for the Jets has been moving the ball on the ground, and they have averaged just 76 yards per game this season at 3.3 yards per carry. The Dolphins have been fairly effective against the run this season, while the pass Defense will receive a boost from the returning Vontae Davis.
Miami too have problems with their Offense that has them leading the race in the 'Andrew Luck sweepstakes' and have lost Chad Henne for the season. In his place will be Matt Moore, the former Carolina Panther that has far more Interceptions than TD passes in his career, even if he did play fairly well against San Diego last time out.
It is hard to see how the Dolphins will consistently move the chains with Moore under Center, especially against this Rex Ryan Defense that will do everything to confuse the QB. The only possibility they have is if they can find the running lanes the Jets have been allowing in their games this season.
Miami have averaged 4.3 yards per carry so far this season, and the Jets are allowing 4.2 yards per carry, so I guess there will be a heavy dose of Daniel Thomas to try and keep Matt Moore in short yardage situations. Moore can also make moves with his legs to pick up short yards if necessary and that will be the only way I can imagine Miami moving the chains.
The Dolphins Offensive Line has struggled to keep the QB upright this season, but again I believe Moore's athletic ability may help him extend plays and avoid the rush when it comes as long as he reads the Defense in their exotic blitz packages.
Head to Head
Miami are 4-1 straight up and against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
The Dolphins have won 3 games in a row on the road against the Jets, both straight up and against the spread. Miami are 6-18-2 against the spread in their last 26 games in the series.
The road team is 7-1-1 against the spread in the last 9 games in the series.
The underdog has won 5 games in a row against the spread in the series.
New York are 1-4 against the spread this season, Miami are 0-3-1.
Other Interesting Trends
New York are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games against teams with losing records.
Miami are 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 13 games as the road underdog. They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Miami are 18-8 against the spread on the road under Tony Sparano.
Miami are 2-1 against the spread coming off a bye under Tony Sparano.
Winless teams coming off a bye are 22-3 against the spread.
Prediction
I really like the Miami Dolphins in this spot and I am locking them in at Ladbrokes who still have the underdogs listed with an 8 point head start. I like the Dolphins for the following reasons:
First, New York just came off an emotional loss to the New England Patriots and then play the San Diego Chargers next week so they may not be fully focused on the winless Dolphins.
Second, Miami have enjoyed plenty of success playing against the Jets in New York in recent seasons, winning the last 3 straight up.
Third, the trends of winless teams coming off a bye is far too large to ignore (you can find the trend under the 'Other Interesting Trends' section).
Fourth, Miami have been performing much better on the road than at home for the last 14 months, as the expectations are not on the team away from the home support that are quick to get on their backs.
My biggest problem with this pick is I don't trust Matt Moore completely, else it would likely be my biggest pick of the month, but I still like the Dolphins to give the Jets all they can handle and love the fact we can get more than a touchdown head start.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New York Jets 20-17 Miami Dolphins
