English Premier
2011-10-23 - Arsenal vs Stoke City
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Sunday 23rd October - Kickoff 13:30pm
Arsenal
10th placed Arsenal host Stoke this weekend in a must win for Wenger's side. Arsenal realistically is out of the title race even at this early stage being a huge 12 points behind City which will take something special to make up. The real goal for me is finishing in the top 4 and with 4th placed Newcastle just 6 points away if all goes well this gap will be 3 points come the end of the weekend.
As we know Arsenal started the season in horrific fashion drawing at Newcastle (0-0) losing at home to Liverpool (2-0) and then were destroyed at Old Trafford to Man United in an 8-2 defeat!
Since then the side has improved (hard not to really after that start!) with 3 wins in 5 games, however they have lost 2 games as well. A weird pattern of W-L-W-L-W has occurred in the last 5 games with the Gunners unable to win back to back games. What is interesting though is the 3 wins have all come at home and the 2 defeats both away. This side definitely prefers playing at home and thankfully for them that's where they are this weekend.
Despite losing to Liverpool (2-0) in their opening home game at the Emirates, Arsenal as a decent record winning the next 3 games as mentioned above taking 9pts from a possible 12.
Since the Liverpool game, Swansea (1-0), Bolton (3-0) and Sunderland (2-1) have been beaten at the Emirates and with Arsenal winning all 3 of the previous encounters it looks good for Wenger's men.
Team news is that Diaby, Almunia, Gibbs, Sagna, Vermaele and Wilshere are missing whilst Jenkinson is a doubt for the game. At left back Santos got the nod midweek so I expect him to keep his place in the side. Djourou is expected to play right back as Jenkinson appears to be struggling for this one. Going forward there is plenty of attacking threat with Van Persie, Gervinho and Walcott all looking sharp at the moment.
Predicted Arsenal Lineup :
Szczesny, Djourou, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Santos, Arteta, Song, Ramsey, Walcott, van Persie, Gervinho.
Stoke City
The Potters continue to impress as the season goes on moving up into 7th position in the table. With 12 points from a possible 24 and their Europa League campaign going well, thinks look bright for Stoke. However, on Sunday they visit the Emirates against an Arsenal side that has beat them on every occasion they have visited in the Premier League.
I thought Stoke would suffer a let down after taking on Europa League games this year which could affect their fitness and sharpness. However with just 2 defeats all season we can safely say the side is balancing both duties incredibly well.
Whilst I am impressed with the start I must add that in the 2 defeats this year, both followed Europa League games where the next league game is away from home. This happened at Sunderland where they lost (4-0) and then to Swansea (2-0). Two defeats and both to nil, this is worth keeping on board.
The away form on the whole is the 12th best in the league, with 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats as mentioned above. Stoke needed an injury time Jones goal to salvage a draw at Norwich (1-1) whilst a last minute Shotton goal was enough to beat West Brom in a 1-0 victory the Hawthorns. Since then the side has lost 2 away games on the bounce and this game doesn't look ideal to stop that run.
Team news is that Collins and Fuller miss this one whilst Higginbotham and Pennant are listed as doubtful. With Jones and Jerome starting midweek, Crouch and Walters should take up their roles up top. Etherington, Whelan, Delap and Pennant should also return to the side that will be fresher than Arsenals and for Stoke to take something from the game they must play a high temp for the whole 90 minutes.
Predicted Stoke Lineup :
Begovic, Wilkinson, Shawcross, Upson, Wilson, Pennant, Delap, Whelan, Etherington, Walters, Crouch.
The Betting Verdict
Both sides come into this game high on confidence following wins in the league and in Europe. But of the two, Arsenal has the better home form up against Stoke's away form so they have the edge. Yet seeing them at around 1.55 I don't think it's that much of an edge.
As I mentioned above Arsenal has beaten Stoke 3 times in a row at home (4-1), (2-0) and (1-0) with Stoke being outscored 7-1! The good news for Stoke is that they are ever improving and this game will be a close one despite the odds.
In the last 10 home games, 7 have ended under 2.50 goals with 5 of Stoke's last 7 away games ending in Unders. Stoke is a very solid side defensively shutting out both Chelsea, Liverpool and restricting United to just 1 goal. Yes all these were at home but I feel the side has the ability to contain Arsenal here.
With the unders price at odds against, I think there is value there despite all the attacking options Arsenal have, I think Stoke's high tempo pressure can contain them. This may end up a narrow Arsenal win or even a score draw, however most importantly this game will end with under 3 goals scored.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal 1-0 Stoke
