NCAA Football
2011-10-29 - Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 9
Saturday 29 October 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Michigan Wolverines (6-1) come off their 'bye' week and return to their home stadium and hope to exorcise the memories of the loss to Michigan State two weeks ago. With the Big Ten Legends Division still up for grabs, the Wolverines need to get back on the horse as they host the Purdue Boilermakers (4-3), who themselves have picked up a little confidence from a win last week.
Purdue hosted the then ranked Illinois Fighting Illini team at home and won the game outright even though they had been set as 4 point underdogs. That means they have won alternating games this season and hope to take advantage of any letdown Michigan have from their loss to the Spartans.
Last season saw the Wolverines collapse following their loss to their local rivals, but they are hoping the bye week has given them time to get their Offense back on track, especially Denard Robinson, who really struggled against Michigan State.
Michigan know Robinson gives them a dual threat from the QB position, but they will need him to limit the mistakes he is making in the passing game. He has thrown 11 TD passes this season, but has also thrown 10 Interceptions and is completing a poor 53% of his passes. The Wolverines will not have it easy against Purdue's passing Defense and will need to move the chains on the ground to make life easier for Robinson.
On the ground is where this game will be won or lost for Michigan as they put up their Offense gaining 5.8 yards per game against Purdue's Defense that only allows 3.7 yards per game. The Boilermakers were torched when they met Notre Dame on the ground earlier this season, and they will find it tough to stop the Wolverines consistently.
Purdue have been very good at creating turnovers with their Defense and that is something the Wolverines have to be aware of in this game.
The Boilermakers have been effective in running the ball themselves and should be able to keep the Offense in 3rd and manageable situations and also give their young QB a chance to make plays with his arm.
Caleb TerBush has 8 TD passes and 4 Interceptions this season while completing 61% of his passing attempts. The Offense as a whole has been very good at restricting turnovers so their Defense does not have to protect short fields. One problem TerBush may encounter this week is a pass rush that is generated by the Wolverines, especially against the Offensive Lines shaky performances.
Michigan's Offensive Line could receive a boost this week now that Ricky Barnum has been upgraded to probable after missing 2 games in a row.
Purdue will be missing Robert Maci (DE) and that is good news for Denard Robinson and the Michigan Offense.
Head to Head
Purdue will be looking to win consecutive road games for the first time in Michigan in 45 years.
The won here by 2 points in 2009, but it was the Wolverines who earned revenge with an 11 point win last season on the road.
Purdue have won the last 3 games against the spread in the series, although Michigan had won 3 in a row before that.
Michigan are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games against Purdue.
The home team is 8-2-1 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series.
Michigan are 5-2 against the spread this season, Purdue are 4-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Michigan are just 4-22 against the spread in their last 26 games in Conference play.
They are just 7-21 against the spread in their last 28 games against teams with winning records.
They are are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games at home.
Purdue are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.
They are 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games following a win.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I am going to back the Michigan Wolverines to bounce back and earn a big Conference win at a packed home stadium for the following reasons:
First, the Wolverines usually are very strong at home against Purdue and they should be loudly backed from the stands that may affect a young QB for the Boilermakers.
Second, Purdue have been very inconsistent this season and have struggled to back up wins and could have a letdown considering their win over a ranked team last week at home.
Third, Purdue may really struggle to get back into this game if they fall two scores behind at any point and it could begin to get ugly for them against a decent Michigan Defense.
I have a couple of concerns considering Michigan's poor record against Conference teams recently, particularly against the spread, while they may still be suffering from the defeat they suffered against Michigan State. However, I feel the bye week would have helped them get things out of their system and get the Offense back on track.
I will look in the 13 point spread now, although there is a chance it may drop lower than that before Saturday's kick off.
The Pick :
Michigan Wolverines 34-17 Purdue Boilermakers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Michigan Wolverines -13 Points @ 1.95
