Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos Betting pick | 2011-10-30

NFL Football

2011-10-30 - Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos
United States: NFL Football Week 8
Sunday 30 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:05pm ET
8:05pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Georgia Bulldogs meet the Florida Gators in a big rivalry game for the second day in a row... Wait a minute, I have something wrong here. Tim Tebow, the former Gator, leads the Denver Broncos (2-4) here at Mile High as the starter for the first time this season against an old rival in Matt Stafford, a former Bulldog, and his Detroit Lions (5-2).

Tebow and Stafford are actually tied 1-1 from games played during their College careers and both are being seen as the faces of the revival of two famous franchises in Denver and Detroit respectively. Matt Stafford has been suffering with an ankle injury, but he has been in practice and I think he will be good to go in the rubber match between him and Tebow.

The Lions had an explosive start to the season by winning their first 5 games of the season, but have lost 2 in a row and they look like they may have lost a little bit of confidence in their play. Matt Stafford is without Jahvid Best and that has been a big absence in the backfield as he made Defenses respect him both running the ball and catching out of the backfield. Denver are not amazing at stopping the run, but I fancy they will be good enough to do so against Maurice Morris who should get the bulk of the Lions rushing carries.

The absence of Best also means teams know the Lions are going to want to pass the ball more and that has meant double-teaming Calvin Johnson, although it hasn't slowed down Megatron too much so far. The Offensive Line has struggled to protect Stafford and give him time to throw the ball to his receivers and now they face a pass rush from Denver that can definitely get after the QB. Denver's Secondary is susceptible to the big play, but Stafford may not get the time to expose them.

If the Lions want to win this game, they will look to load the box and force Tim Tebow to beat them with his arm. The marmite QB (you either love him or hate him) made some terrible throws last week but led the Broncos to a comeback win over the Dolphins. I don't see him having much success against a strong pass Defense the Detroit Lions have, and he will do well to avoid to steer clear of the pressure the front 4 generate. Denver's Offensive Line could not protect Tebow last week and you have to think the Lions will get after him.

Denver can run the ball, but will be missing Willis McGahee this week who will be replaced by Knowshon Moreno. Detroit have struggled to stop the run all season and so this is an area that the Broncos will look to exploit.

Head to Head

Detroit beat Denver heavily when they last met back in 2007, but that game was in MoTown.

The last time they played here was in 2003, and it was the Broncos who won the game by 4 points.

Denver are 2-4 against the spread this season, Denver are 4-2-1.

Other Interesting Trends

Denver are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points. However, they are just 7-18-2 against the spread in their last 27 games at home.

Detroit are just 0-5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.

Prediction

I like the Detroit Lions to finally get back on track and win this game for the following reasons:

First, the Lions have a bye game next week so they can put everything into this game, including the slightly injured Matt Stafford, while the Denvers face Divisional rivals Oakland next.

Second, I think Matt Stafford can make enough plays against this Secondary for the Lions to put points on the board and it will be tough for Tebow to make enough plays with his arm to get Denver back if they are down late.

Third, all the credit for Tebow actually pulling a win out of the bag last week in South Florida, but I have not forgotten how bad this Offense was for 57 minutes.

The Statistics :

DENVER BRONCOS LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-10-09	L	24-29	H v San Diego Chargers
	2011-09-18	W	24-22	H v Cincinnati Bengals
	2011-09-12	L	20-23	H v Oakland Raiders
	2011-01-02	L	28-33	H v San Diego Chargers
	2010-12-26	W	24-23	H v Houston Texans
	2010-11-28	L	33-36	H v St. Louis Rams

DETROIT LIONS LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-10-02	W	30-34	A v Dallas Cowboys
	2011-09-25	W	23-26	A v Minnesota Vikings
	2011-09-11	W	20-27	A v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	2010-12-26	W	27-34	A v Miami Dolphins
	2010-12-19	W	20-23	A v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	2010-11-21	L	35-19	A v Dallas Cowboys