NFL Football
2011-11-06 - San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 9
Sunday 6 November 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Washington Redskins (3-4) made a bright start to the new season and looked to be backing up QB Rex Grossman's words who said they were the 'best team in the NFC East'... They have since benched Grossman, and are fast looking like a team that will struggle to get to 5 wins on the season and now face a real surprising team in the form of the San Francisco 49ers (6-1).
The 49ers were expected to be a work in progress in Jim Harbaugh's first season, yet they are in total control of the weak NFC West and are also well on course to earning a bye week in the first week of the Play Offs. They have even reversed some recent trends by winning twice on the East Coast in early games, a notoriously difficult spot for West Coast teams.
Perhaps more surprising than their start to the season has been the efficient play of Alex Smith at QB. Smith, a former Overall Number 1 Draft Pick, has struggled in the Bay Area throughout his career, although not helped by a revolving door policy on Offensive Co-Ordinators, and many had ruled a line through him as a starting QB in the NFL. However, Harbaugh seems to be coaching him up and Smith has 9 TD passes with just 2 Interceptions this season.
It won't be easy for Smith this week against a tough Washington Defense that is only allowing 223 yards per game through the air, and one that will be able to take advantage of any shaky Offensive Line play as they have a strong pass rush, starting with Brian Orakpo.
Smith will likely begin this game by slowing down this pass rush by using Frank Gore to run the ball. Gore has been playing well of late and should have a decent day against this Redskins Defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the year. That will give Smith short and manageable situations which should make it easier for the 49ers to move the chains throughout the game.
Washington were just awful Offensively in Toronto last week as they were shut out by the Buffalo Bills, a team not exactly known for their Defensive prowess, as the Redskins lost their 3rd consecutive game in a row. Injuries are taking their toll on both sides of the ball and it will not be easier for them this week.
Tim Hightower was placed on injured reserve a couple of weeks ago, while Santana Moss is out for a few weeks. Chris Cooley is another Offensive weapon that will not be suited up this week, while the Offensive Line has a number of injuries to contend with. All of these problems means it will be another tough day in the office for John Beck, especially against a 49ers Defense that has had plenty of success getting to the QB all season.
That will not exactly inspire Beck as the Bills, who had 4 sacks on the season, managed to abuse the Offensive Line and put the QB on his backside 9 times last week.
And it is not like Beck can hand it off to his back, in this case Ryan Torain, and hope he rips of big gains as the 49ers have been very strong protecting themselves against the run this season. All in all, it is tough to see how the Redskins move the ball with any sort of consistency in this game.
Head to Head
San Francisco beat Washington by 3 points when they last met in 2008 at Candlestick Park, but the spread was a push.
Washington thrashed the 49ers when they last played in the Capital back in 2005, covering the 13.5 point spread in the win.
The Redskins are 2-0-2 against the spread in the last 4 games in the series.
Washington are 3-4 against the spread this season, San Francisco are 6-0-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Washington are 7-16-2 against the spread in their last 25 games played at home. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
San Francisco are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against NFC opponents.
Road favourites from the West Coast are 10-24 against the spread since 1998 when playing on the East Coast.
Prediction
I like the San Francisco 49ers to win this game and cover the spread although I will offer a couple of concerns with the pick after the following reasons:
First, the 49ers have a very good Defense that will pose problems for the Washington Offense that has really struggled in recent games, most notably last week. The Offense has so many injuries that is hard to see them move the ball consistently.
Second, on the other hand, I expect the 49ers will be able to run the ball on this Defense and should allow Alex Smith to keep the chains moving in short and manageable situations against this tough Defense.
Third, San Francisco have already won two early games on the East Coast this season so should have the confidence to complete their hat-trick in a notoriously tough spot for West Coast teams.
Obviously there are a couple of trends that really concern me, most notably the record of West Coast favourites on the road at East Coast opponents since 1998, but I don't believe the Redskins have enough Offense to cover what looks like a small spread and I will be backing the road team to win with a bit to spare.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Washington Redskins 6-17 San Francisco 49ers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the San Francisco 49ers -4 Points @ 1.95
