English Premier
2011-12-21 - Manchester City vs Stoke City
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Wednesday 21st December - Kickoff 7:45pm
Man City
Leaders City didn't take long to get over their Monday night loss to Chelsea a week ago as they beat high flying Arsenal (1-0) in a very open game of football at the weekend. The home win moves City back into first place ahead of city rivals United and the lead at the top is back to 2 points. This Wednesday we see a repeat of last season's FA Cup final as Stoke visit the the Ethiad.
Sunday's win was City's 8th straight at home and there is a lot of similarities to City's home form this season and United's last. Last year United dropped just 2 points at home and it looks as though City could replicate that. With 8 wins from 8, confidence is high and it will take a huge effort from Stoke to prevent that record extending to 9 from 9.
City has recorded home wins over Swansea (4-0), Wigan (3-0), Everton (2-0), Villa (4-1), Wolves (3-1), Newcastle (3-1), Norwich (5-1) and Arsenal (1-0). Half of these games have been won to nil, whilst 7 have been won by at least 2 goals. Against Stoke statistically it's not will they win, but by how much?
Man City Team News
Mancini has his entire squad available bar Korolov, the other left back Clichy returns from suspension to probably slot in at full back with Zabaleta making way.
In the middle Lescott may replace Toure in the middle with the other's unchanged. Up top Dzeko is due a game so Balotelli may make way, whilst Johnson, Milner and De Jong could get starts as Mancini looks to freshen up the midfield.
The side won't be hindered by the changes as City has class all over the pitch. Even if they are struggling, with the stars on the bench waiting in the wings City will be a threat easily for the entire 90 minutes.
Stoke City
Pulis continues to do a remarkable job with this Stoke side. The Potters currently occupy 8th in the table and trail the European places by 5 points. Unfortunately for them they visit the toughest ground in the country and any result at the Ethiad is a massive bonus.
Stoke's current form is good with 4 straight wins coming off the back off 4 straight defeats. In their 4 defeats Stoke still scored 4 goals at a goal a game but they conceded 14 at an average of 3.50 goals a game!
In the last 4 games, City scored 8 goals but only conceded 3 as the defence has started to tighten up. Against the league leaders Stoke will have to carry on this form defensively as it seems entirely likely that Mancini's side will score at least once.
With 3 away wins from their 8 games, Stoke can not be taken lightly but against their current scoring form they average less than a goal a game away from the Britannia. Pulis's men also have failed to score at Sunderland (4-0), Swansea (2-0) and Bolton (5-0) but they have scored 3 goals in their last 2 away games winning at both Everton (0-1) and Wolves (1-2).
Stoke will not keep City out and if they can keep it to 1 goal then anything is possible. The side is very confident at the minute and has a nice little scoring run going with at least 2 goals scored in 4 of their last 5 overall. To have any chance of a point(s) they need to score and the stats suggest we may see that happen.
Stoke Team News
Collins, Sidibe and Shawcross miss this one with doubts over Whelan and Wilkinson.
Losing the captain is a big blow and the defence will have to be rotated to cover his loss. Huth will partner Woodgate who was run ragged against Spurs recently so I fear for him against Aguero and Dzeko.
The midfield should see the same familiar 4 so long as Whelan makes it with Etherington and Pennant out wide looking to feed Crouch and Walters up top.
The Betting Verdict
Man City dominates this fixture historically winning all 3 encounters against Stoke by scorelines of 3-0, 2-0, 3-0. Both sides have strengthed since last season but the Manchester club just looks too strong for Stoke.
I say too strong, but no way would I back them at 1.25 following a short break and having just played in an epic game against Arsenal.
Mancini's men should have too much for Stoke but if the Potters can frustrate for long enough there's a chance they could sneak a point. Often we see big sides win an important game then relax and find themselves in a hole the next week. I wouldn't say Man City will do this but at 1.25 I'm not paying to find out!
As mentioned above Stoke MUST score for me to take any kind of point and I think they have a shout despite not scoring in any of their last 3 games here. City have not had a home clean sheet since September before Sunday's one against Arsenal and Stoke's scoring is good of late.
I was tempted to back the half draw as I feel Stoke will frustrate the Champions elect and goals may be hard to come by. However, then I read City has only conceded 4 goals in the first half whilst scoring at least one first half goal in 7 of their last 9 games.
I don't normally play Half time markets but I feel there is value in Mancini's men to be leading at HT. Stoke has trailed at half time in 5 of their 8 away games this season and with a fresh City lineup aginst a tired lower quality Stoke one I see Mancini's having enough to lead at the break.
I didn't take the HT/FT market as the HT Man City ahead price is 1.84 at Ladrokes whilst the HT/FT is 1.75!! It may be an error on Ladbrokes part but they have accepted my cash on this market so get on whilst you can. Other bookies have the same bet at cira 1.65 so this is a monster price for the league's best home side.Home Win.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Man City 2-1 Stoke City
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Man City -0.75 AH on the Half Time Market at 1.84 at Ladbrokes
