English FA CUP
2012-01-07 - Newcastle United vs Blackburn Rovers
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: FA Cup 3rd Round
Saturday 7 January 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Newcastle United
Newcastle United are probably on a real high after handing out a comprehensive beating to Manchester United on Wednesday night and I am sure a cup run would suit them very much. Alan Pardew played a strong team in the Carling Cup so I would be surprised if he changes policy now, especially with one of the Manchester clubs definitely not reaching Round 4.
The team remain in 7th place in the Premier League after their latest win, but they have closed the gap to 4th placed Chelsea to 4 points as they bid to make an improbable challenge for a Champions League spot. Newcastle are 5-3-2 at home this season, scoring 15 goals and conceding 11 so far.
Newcastle have won 2 of their last 3 games in the Premier League after a run of 6 games without a win. They had failed to win in 3 games at home before the win over Manchester United and both of their home defeats in the League have come in the last 4 games here. The Magpies have not had a home cup game so far this season.
Demba Ba and Chiek Tiote have both left the club to take part in the African Cup of Nations so Leon Best and Danny Guthrie could be brought into the side to replace them. Peter Lovenkrands, Steven Taylor and Sylvain Marveaux are all out.
Blackburn Rovers
Steve Kean was under intense pressure as the Blackburn Rovers manager, but 4 points from 2 trips to Anfield and Old Trafford before the end of 2011 seemed to help the team turn a corner. However, results in the last round of games has seen Blackburn return to the bottom of the table as they lost 1-2 to Stoke City at home.
Blackburn have actually earned more points away from home in the Premier League than they have at Ewood Park. Rovers are 1-5-4 on their travels, scoring 16 goals and conceding 22, an amount that is the most in the Premier League away from home so far along with Arsenal.
Regardless of the slight pick up in form with the results at Liverpool and Manchester United, it still has to be said that Blackburn have won just 1 of their last 6 games in the Premier League. The team have lost 6 of their last 9 games, and they have now conceded at least 2 goals in 9 of their last 10 games in all competitions. Blackburn lost their only away game in the Carling Cup at Cardiff as Steve Kean rested a number of players.
Gael Givet could be given a place in the starting line up after recovering from a period of time off when he was suffering from heart palpitations. Martin Olsson and David Hoilett will need to pass late fitness tests, while Steve Kean may opt to make a couple of changes from the side that has played so much in the festive season. Chris Samba was subject of a bid from QPR today so could be left out here.
Head to Head
Newcastle and Blackburn have already met twice this season with Newcastle winning 3-1 here in the Premier League and Blackburn winning a Carling Cup game 4-3 after extra time at Ewood Park.
Before this seasons game, Blackburn had won 5 times in a row when visiting Newcastle.
The teams met in this competition in the 1999/2000 season with Newcastle United winning 1-2 away from home.
Prediction
While I think the absence of Demba Ba will be huge for Newcastle, we did see this team cope without Andy Carroll last season through the use of Leon Best and I think that will be the case this year for the next month or so.
I think this game will also mean more to Newcastle who will feel they can have a real run in the competition with the right draw, while I think Blackburn Rovers will be more concerned with maintaining their Premier League future rather than a prolonged stay in the Cup.
With that in mind, I am going to back Newcastle to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap, progressing through to the 4th Round of the Cup.
The Pick :
Newcastle United 2-0 Blackburn Rovers
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Newcastle United -0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80
