English FA CUP
2012-02-07 - Southampton vs Millwall
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: FA Cup 4th Round Replay
Tuesday 7 February 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
Southampton
Southampton have definitely hit a sticky patch as far as their promotion aims are concerned in the Championship, but they could use this FA Cup replay as a chance to pick up a little bit of form and also earn a home draw in the 5th Round against Bolton Wanderers.
It wasn't that long ago that the Saints were leading the way in the Championship, but they now find themselves in 2nd place and 4 points behind West Ham United. The pressure is also being increased by a trio of sides below them in the race for the automatic promotion spots. Southampton are 11-2-2 at home this season, scoring 31 goals and conceding 12.
The team have won just 2 of their last 8 games in all competitions and they have failed to win any of their last 4, although drawing their last 3 games consecutively. After winning 21 games here in all competitions, Southampton have now won just 1 of their last 5 home games and they had suffered consecutive losses here before drawing 1-1 with Cardiff City.
Richard Chaplow will make his return to the side from injury in this game and has been given a starting berth from Nigel Adkins. Danny Fox is suspended after being sent off at the weekend, and there are likely to be a number of changes with a mix of experience and youth expected to start.
Millwall
Millwall lost in the big Derby game with West Ham at the weekend and must surely be considering maintaining their future in the Championship ahead of a long FA Cup run. The loss at Upton Park was more disappointing considering West Ham were down to 10 men for 80 minutes of that game.
The Lions are 21st in the Championship and have a 5 point cushion over Doncaster Rovers in the relegation zone, although the latter and Nottingham Forest have a game in hand over Millwall. They have struggled away from the New Den, going 2-3-9 so far this season, scoring 11 goals and conceding 21.
Millwall have now failed to win any of their last 3 games in all competitions and come into this game off the back of consecutive defeats. The team have won just 2 of their last 9 games in all competitions, one of those against lower-League Dagenham and Redbridge in the FA Cup 3rd Round. Millwall have won just 1 of their last 8 away games and they have scored just 4 goals in those games.
Paul Robinson, the Millwall Captain, is set to miss this game. There are still some injury concerns in the squad for Kenny Jackett to deal with, while Andy Keogh is ineligible as he was not in the squad for the original tie.
Head to Head
This will be the third meeting between the sides this season, with Southampton beating Millwall 1-0 at home, and drawing in the original 4th Round tie at the New Den.
Southampton are unbeaten in their last 4 games at home against Millwall.
Prediction
As with my prediction for the Sheffield Wednesday-Blackpool game, I think this could be another low scoring game with the expected changes being made to sides that have bigger fish to fry in the Championship.
While both will feel they could potentially win a 5th Round home clash with Bolton Wanderers, both will also know there is a busy schedule ahead of them this month as the season starts moving into the crucial weeks where promotions and relegations can have foundations built and lost.
Southampton have begun to struggle in the League, while their home form has been poor after a long run of wins came to an end. They have just hit a patch of struggling to score goals, while Millwall themselves have had a tough time on their travels all season.
I think it was telling on Saturday that Millwall failed to really create a lot considering they were playing a team down to 10 men for the vast majority of the match and this all points to a game that could be decided by a single goal.
It might be a little risky, but I think the odds suggest playing the 'Under' in both Tuesday night games should bring in a profit.
The Pick :
Southampton 1-0 Millwall
