English FA CUP
2012-02-18 - Sunderland vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: FA Cup 5th Round
Saturday 18 February 2012 - Kick Off 5:15pm
This game is live on TV
Sunderland
Martin O'Neill suffered his first loss as manager of Sunderland at home last weekend thanks to a Thierry Henry goal in the last minute of the game against Arsenal, but he is given a quick opportunity to gain some revenge over his wounded opponents. The quick turnaround of fortunes at the Stadium of Light is all down to O'Neill's presence on the touchline and a Quarter Final appearance in the FA Cup would back those claims.
Sunderland remained in the top half of the Premier League table despite the loss to Arsenal last weekend, but they will want to get back to form here at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats are 5-4-4 here in the League, while both FA Cup wins have been earned on their travels at Peterborough United and local rivals Middlesbrough.
The team had been unbeaten in 4 games in all competitions before being beaten by Arsenal last time out and they had won 4 of their 6 home games under O'Neill before that game. Sunderland have now scored in 8 consecutive games at home, while they have conceded just 4 goals in their last 6 games here.
Nicolas Bendtner will not be able to play in this game as Arsenal are still his parent club. David Vaughan, Wes Brown and Titus Bramble have all been ruled out, but Lee Cattermole could return having missed the League game last week.
Arsenal
It was around this time last season that Arsenal collapsed in all the competitions they were involved in and Arsene Wenger will sincerely want to avoid the same scenario as he looks to pick up the players following a 4-0 loss at Milan during the week. With the Champions League likely gone this season, the pressure is still to win some silverware and make sure they finish in the top 4 and earn the right to dine at the top table of European football next season.
Arsenal are 4th in the Premier League table following Thierry Henry's parting gift to them last week when scoring the winner at Sunderland. There is still plenty of work to be done if they are to finish in that spot come May and they do have a crucial game with Tottenham Hotspur next Sunday to look forward to. The Gunners are 5-2-6 away from home this season, and this is their first on their travels in the FA Cup following home wins over Leeds United and Aston Villa in the last two Rounds.
The team seemed to have turned a corner having won 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions following a 1-2 home loss to Manchester United in the League, but the loss in Milan is a mighty setback. Wenger was absolutely disappointed with the manner of the defeat, which is their 3rd in their last 5 away games in all competitions. The Gunners have won just 2 of their last 8 away games.
Laurent Koscielny suffered a knock from the game in Milan and he may not be risked with the big game at Tottenham Hotspur coming up next week. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain will hope to be restored to the line up after being taken out of the game against Milan. Per Mertesacker was injured here in the build up to the Sunderland goal and is expected to miss out.
Head to Head
Arsenal had failed to win here at the Stadium of Light in their previous three visits, but did win here last week courtesy of a 89th minute winner from Henry.
Prediction
Sunderland have understandably been shortening in the prices since the Arsenal performance in Milan, but I think it is a little harsh to have the Gunners at around 30 ticks bigger than they were in the League game last week.
Personally I don't want to get involved in the win-draw-win market as people have to account for how much the Milan result has affected the Arsenal players- they could be devastated and lose comfortably here in the North-East, or they could be determined and win more handsomely than they did last week.
The price reflects that intangible that we just cannot be aware of, but I think that relies on too much 'guesswork' rather than actually having a lean for a particular reason.
The Sunderland price may have been appealing prior to Wednesday night but the value seems to have gone and my gut feeling thinks any result is possible, so I will stay away.
Instead I will look at the anytime scorer markets and I have to say the price on Robin Van Persie is awfully appealing at 2.25- he looked the most lively player on Wednesday night by testing the Milan goal with three decent efforts, and his goalscoring achievements over the last 12 months has been well documented. I just don't think he should be odds against to score against anybody at the moment and he is surely the biggest danger in the Arsenal camp.
While it is hard to guess how the Gunners react, you can be sure that Van Persie will be a constant threat and is worth backing at odds against.
The Pick :
Sunderland 1-1 Arsenal
