English League Two
2012-05-13 - Cheltenham vs Torquay
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : English : League Two
Sunday, May 13th, 2012, 12:00PM GMT
PREVIEW
Cheltenham, who finished 6th with 77 points, host Torquay, who finished just above them on 81 points in the 1st leg of the playoffs, hoping to make it through to face Southend (surely not Crewe?) in the finals. I think this is a close contest, but recent results and home advantage make me think the prices on Cheltenham are a touch high.
Torquay have already met Cheltenham 3 times this season. The league matches ended in a draw and a Torquay win, but the FL Trophy match gives us a better idea of how this should play out as that is a much more pressured situation, and with the game being played at Cheltenham, it was them that came out 2-1 winners. Cheltenham have actually been great at home coming into this match, winning their last 3 coming into this. What does concern me is the fact they have conceded in each of their last 5 league games.
While that is a concern, Torquay are even more worrying, entering this on the back of a 5 match winless run. That run is the reason Torquay missed out on automatic promotion, and they will likely be pissed and upset about that. Unlike Southend, they don't even have good recent form to fall back on, meaning they cannot be considered for a bet here. I read their last 9 games have seen them start games slow too, scoring just 1 goal in the 1st half of the last 9 games, which is truly shocking.
If Cheltenham take the lead, as I believe they will, they look a solid bet to close it out and take a lead back to Torquay. In the 13 home games they took the lead, they went on to win every time. Their last 3 home games have seen them beat Barnet 2-0, Accrington Stanley 4-1 and Bradfor 3-1. Each of them has been by at least 2 goals, but more importantly, they have scored a bunch each time, never being restricted to just 1.
BETTING VERDICT
I could waffle on, but the bet seems clear. Cheltenham have scored more than once in their last few home games coming into this, boast good form and have already won a pressured match here against Torquay, scoring more than once. Let's take that Home Total Goals here for a big price.
The Pick :
Cheltenham to score 2 or more
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Cheltenham Team Total - Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.50
