Oklahoma City at San Antonio Spurs | 2012-06-04 | NBA Basketball | Betting Pick by FirstDown

NBA Basketball

2012-06-04 - Oklahoma City at San Antonio Spurs

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off Final
Monday 4 June 2012 - Tip Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)

Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder won game 4 of this Western Conference Final series and they have now tied it up at 2-2 as they head back to the San Antonio Spurs for what could be a pivotal game 5. After snapping the Spurs 20 game winning run, the Thunder have looked very comfortable in what they want to do in the last couple of games in the series.

In all honesty, Oklahoma City are probably a little bit disappointed that they don't already have command of this series having held a big lead in game 1 and they will use that as a confidence boost that they can win in Texas, something they have to do at least once if they are to get through to the NBA Finals.

A lot of the success from game 4 came about from the magical shooting night of Serge Ibaka who scored all 11 field goals he attempted, while Nick Collison and Kendrick Perkins were also factors offensively. Gregg Popovich has no plans to change his defensive schemes and has made it clear that he will allow those three players to continue trying to hit from the field as they did in the last game.

On the other hand, Oklahoma City will be expecting better from Russell Westbrook who struggled badly in the last game for his worst shooting performance of the Play Offs so far this season. It is also likely that they will once again give the ball to Kevin Durant at key times as he continues lining his CV as a closer after scoring 18 points in the final quarter in the last game.

San Antonio will be looking to get their own star back in action as Tony Parker has really struggled in the last couple of games as the Thunder made the adjustments to deal with him. Instead of Westbrook, the defensive responsibilty has been on Thabo Sefolosha and he has managed to restrict what Parker had been able to do in the first two games of the series.

Head to Head

Oklahoma City won the last two games of this series and now trail 3-4 in the season series against the San Antonio Spurs. They also improved to 4-3 against the spread in those games.

San Antonio will feel confident they can protect home court advantage having won their last 6 at home against the Thunder, going 4-2 against the spread in those games.

Other Interesting Trends

San Antonio are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home favourite laying between 5 and 10.5 points.

They are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games after a straight up loss.

Oklahoma City are 20-6 against the spread in their last 26 games as the road underdog given between 5 and 10.5 points.

They are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.

Prediction

This is a pivotal game in this series, but I am going to back the road team to at least keep it close for the following reasons:

First, Oklahoma City have found something defensively to limit the impact of Tony Parker and that has given them the edge in the last couple of games in the series. San Antonio have to prove they can make the adjustments on limited time.

Second, there is suddenly a little more pressure on the Spurs after riding a 20 game winning run and now losing two in a row. Playing a young, vibrant and confident Thunder team could be a really big ask of this team.

Third, the Thunder have found something from their role players in the series in the last game and they just seem to have a lot of belief in what they are doing.