NCAA Football
2012-09-08 - North Carolina at Wake Forest
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 8 September 2012 - Kick Off 3pm ET
8pm (British Time)
Preview
This is an ACC battle between the North Carolina Tar Heels (1-0) and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (1-0) who both have made winning starts to the new season. Those wins were expected against FCS schools so both teams will have a much bigger test this week.
Wake Forest really struggled in their opening game, but that had to be expected considering they are only returning 4 starters on the Offense and 7 starters on the Defense. The inexperience at the Offensive Line and running back positions saw the Demon Deacons have just 2.6 yards per carry last week and this was an issue for them all last season.
It won't get any easier this week as North Carolina held Elon to just 1.2 yards per carry and have been tough to run on over the last five seasons. However, the Demon Deacons had their best running game against the Tar Heels last season.
If Wake Forest can't get the same production as in that game, they will have to rely on Tanner Price making the plays from Quarter Back, although he doesn't have the support in the receiving areas and it looks like this could be a really tough test for their Offense throughout the game.
The North Carolina Offense looks like one that could put up big numbers in the ACC this season and they started off with over 500 yards of total Offense in their opener. Bryn Renner is an effective Quarter Back and should be well supported by the receivers he has, while Giovani Bernard is quite possibly the best running back in the ACC.
The Tar Heels had over 560 yards of total Offense against Wake Forest last season and should be able to both run the ball and pass the ball against this Defense. I expect North Carolina will also win the field battle, while also have more chances to create turnovers out of the two teams.
Head to Head
North Carolina beat Wake Forest by 25 points at home last season and snapped a two game losing run to the Demon Deacons.
They haven't played here since 2007 when Wake Forest won by 27 points to cover the 5.5 point spread despite being outgained in total Offense.
North Carolina are 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
Prediction
I am going to back the North Carolina Tar Heels to get their ACC campaign off to a winning start, even though they are bowl ineligible, and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the North Carolina team are better in all facets of the game and look capable of putting up big numbers on the Offensive side of the ball than the Wake Forest Demon Deacons can.
Second, the Tar Heels look capable of winning the turnover battle and that is key to covering spreads such as these.
Third, I believe there is more consistency with the number of starters the Tar Heels return compared with the Demon Deacons and that may be enough to see them cover the spread.
The Pick :
Wake Forest 17-30 North Carolina
