Bayern Munich vs Valencia Betting Pick | Champions League

Champions League

2012-09-19 - Bayern Munich vs Valencia

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Bayern Munich v Valencia
Football: European Champions League
Wednesday 19 September 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

Bayern Munich

I won't lie and hide the fact that I have always been impressed with Bayern Munich as a football club and that I have a lot of respect for them as a footballing institution. After coming so close to winning the Champions League last season, I look at Bayern Munich as being the best challengers to the two Spanish giants Barcelona and Real Madrid to win the trophy at Wembley this season.

They will have a chance to lay down the marker in this Group as they will play a Spanish team in Valencia who will be their biggest challengers as the Group is made up by BATE and Lille. Bayern have won all 5 competitive games they have played this season and they are top of the Bundesliga with 3 wins and a + 10 goal difference.

Bayern Munich are 16-2-0 in their last 18 games at home in all competitions, although they of course lost one of the games they drew on penalties to Chelsea in the Champions League Final. They had won all 7 home games in the Champions League last season before drawing in that final and they are 14-1-2 in their last 17 at home in this competition.

Javi Martinez wasn't risked at the weekend but is set to take his place in the midfield in this game, while both Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery are in training and should also be good to go. Lukas Raeder, Mario Gomez, Diego Contento and David Alaba are all missing.

Valencia

It has been over ten years since Valencia reached back to back Finals in this competition and had one of the best sides in Europe. They haven't reached that same level since that time and are now considered a real outsider, although still good enough to probably qualify ahead of Lille and BATE in this Group.

A blind look at La Liga shows Valencia are down in 11th place and have picked up just 5 points from a possible 12 this season, but that does hide the fact that they have already played both Real Madrid and Barcelona away from home. Valencia should be given some respect that they have only lost 1 game from their first 4 in the League, while they picked up their first win of the season last weekend.

Valencia have failed to win any of their last 9 away games in all competitions and it is telling that they have lost 7 of those games- surprisingly, their two exceptions have both come at Real Madrid in La Liga. They have also won just 1 of their last 9 away games in the Champions League, and they actually have failed to win any of their last 6 while losing 3 of their last 4.

Fernando Gago is missing, while the squad is limited at the moment thanks to some financial issues.

Head to Head

This is the first time Bayern Munich and Valencia will have met in a competitive game since the Champions League Final of 2001 that Bayern won on a penalty shoot-out.

They last met here in Munich in the 1999/2000 season and that game ended in a 1-1 draw.

Prediction

I think Bayern Munich are the right favourites to win this game, but the price looks a little short to me on the straight win and therefore the handicaps are a little tough to get a proper grip on.

It would also be a little foolish to under-estimate Valencia considering they earned a 1-1 draw at Real Madrid and only lost 1-0 at Barcelona this season.

However, Valencia have been poor travellers in the Champions League while their recent away games have also been tough for them with 7 defeats from 9.

I expect they will come to the Allianz Arena and look to make life difficult for the home side who are missing Mario Gomez. However, I think Bayern Munich have enough match winners in their squad to do enough to earn the three points and show they are on the same level as the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid.

In saying that, I think the value may be on Bayern Munich to win by exactly 1 goal as Valencia are rarely blown away in a games. 3 of their last 4 away games have seen them lose by a single goal while the draws against Real Madrid show they are a difficult side to get the better off when they sit out to defend in numbers.

The Statistics :

BAYERN_MUNCHEN LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2012-04-17	W	2-1	H v Real_Madrid
	2012-04-03	W	2-0	H v Marseille
	2012-03-13	W	7-0	H v Basel
	2011-11-22	W	3-1	H v Villarreal
	2011-11-02	W	3-2	H v Napoli
	2011-09-27	W	2-0	H v Man_City

VALENCIA LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-12-06	L	3-0	A v Chelsea
	2011-10-19	L	2-1	A v Leverkusen
	2011-09-13	D	0-0	A v Genk
	2011-03-09	L	3-1	A v Schalke
	2010-12-07	D	1-1	A v Manchester_Utd
	2010-10-20	D	1-1	A v Rangers