English Premier
2013-03-04 - Aston Villa vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premier League
Monday 4th March - Kickoff 8:00pm
Aston Villa
Aston Villa lost 2-1 at Arsenal last weekend to leave themselves down in 18th place. Goal difference leaves them in the bottom 3 and with their rivals playing before them they could be 3 points from safety come their game on Monday night.
Lambert's side have won once in the last 10 league games. Aston Villa have had some decent results drawing at Swansea and Everton in high scoring games. However, draws are not good enough and they need wins at this stage of the season.
At home Villa won 2-1 against West Ham to end a 4 game losing run. As with most sides near the bottom the home form is the key and they really can't afford to lose this game against Man City.
Villa have scored in back to back home games to end a run of 4 straight games without scoring. At the other end it's 5 games without a clean sheet as Villa has conceded 11 over this run at over 2 a game.
Manchester City
Manchester City beat Chelsea 2-0 last weekend to open a nice gap to 3rd place. The title is virtually lost but they will keep going and certainly won't take this one lightly.
Mancini's side won for the first time in 4 last weekend as they continue to let United get away at the top of the table. This side is great at home but has struggled on the road compared to last season and that has most likely cost City the title.
Away from home City haven't won in 2 league games having lost 1 and drawn the other. Going back to 2011, when City have lost an away league game they have gone to avoid defeat in the next away game winning 6 and drawing 3.
City has scored in 3 of their lat 4 away games but they haven't netted twice in the last 2. Defensively, 2 clean sheets in the last 3 is a good record but Southampton scored 3 past them last time out after 3 unusual defensive errors.
Betting Verdict
As expected the visitors are odds on to win this game around 1.50 and that's not the kind of price that interests me.
The hosts have it all to do to stay in this league but 1 win in 10 doesn't inspire me at all. The visitors usually respond well after losing on their travels and I'm sure they will get goals against this Villa defence.
The hosts are averaging 2 against at the moment with the majority of goals coming in the second half of games. I'm going to take Overs in this game as I see at least 2 City goals but I don't trust the back line at the minute.
We saw a shootout when City's rivals United were here earlier in the season under the sky cameras and I expect a similar game. The visitors should have too much and scores of 1-2 and 1-3 look likely to me but overs it is.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester City
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Over 2.50 Goals at 1.81 Pinnaclesports
