Champions League
2007-04-10 - Manchester Utd vs AS Roma
A Sports Betting Pick by TheSpecialOne
Old Trafford, Manchester - 20:45 (CET)
The first leg finished 2-1 in Rome. This means Man Utd will be looking to overcome a 1st leg deficit for the first time in the UEFA Champions League when Roma travel to Old Trafford. Will Roma rue the opportunity they missed to kill off this tie or could Wayne Rooney’s strike prove decisive?
MANCHESTER UNITED
When asked about qualification, Alex Ferguson sounded bullish. That is because his team managed to score an unlikely away goal when his team was reduced to 10 men. However their recent knockout form should not inspire him. They have lost on the five previous occasions when trailing from the first leg.
Dortmund in 1996/97 (0-1 away, 0-1 at home)
Bayern in 2000/01 (0-1 at home, 1-2 away)
Real in 2002/03 (1-3 away, 4-3 at home)
Porto in 2003/04 (1-2 away, 1-1 at home)
Milan in 2004/05 (0-1 at home, 0-1 away)
Man Utd suffered a blow in their Premiership campaign at the weekend going down 2-1 to Portsmouth at Fratton Park on Saturday evening. Ferguson paid the price for resting a handful of players as his team looked lethargic and lacked their usual cohesion.
Paul Scholes will miss the game through suspension because of the red card he received in Rome. This will be offset by the return of French duo Louis Saha and Patrice Evra who should both be ready to play. Darren Fletcher or John O'Shea should slot into central midfield alongside Carrick in the absence of Scholes.
Probable team (4-4-2)
Van der Sar
Brown, Ferdinand, Heinze, Evra
Ronaldo, Carrick, Fletcher (or O'Shea), Giggs
Rooney, Saha (or Solskjaer)
Home Form
2nd Rnd
07.03.2007 Man Utd 1-0 Lille
Previous season knockout form
23.02.2005 Man Utd 0-1 AC Milan (2nd Rnd)
09.03.2004 Man Utd 1-1 Porto (2nd Rnd)
23.04.2003 Man Utd 4-3 Real Madrid (1/4 Finals)
10.04.2002 Man Utd 3-2 Deportivo (1/4 Finals)
24.04.2002 Man Utd 2-2 Leverkusen (1/2 Finals)
03.04.2001 Man Utd 0-1 Bayern (1/4 Finals)
19.04.2000 Man Utd 2-3 Real Madrid (1/4 Finals)
AS ROMA
Spalletti had no such problems at the weekend against Catania. He too rested a number of his first team players, yet Roma still managed to win 2-0 away at Catania to keep a seven point gap between themselves and arch rivals Lazio in third place.
Doni, Chivu, Panucci, De Rossi and Mancini all started on the bench. Panucci, De Rossi and Manicini all played some part of the second half though. Taddei and Totti, who was nursing a slight back complaint, were not even in the squad.
Expect all the seven rested players to start in the return leg in Manchester. The only player who will miss the game is Perrotta. He will not play because of suspension, so the previously banned Pizarro will return next to De Rossi in midfield with Wilhelmsson and Manicini flanking a more central Taddei.
Totti will play as the furthest man forward.
Probable team (4-2-3-1)
Doni
Cassetti, Mexes, Chivu, Panucci
De Rossi, Pizarro,
Wilhelmsson, Taddei, Mancini
Totti
Away Form
2nd Rnd
07.03.2007 Lyon 0-2 Roma
No Previous seasons knockout form
The Verdict
Spalletti will no doubt have been disappointed by his team’s lapse in concentration that allowed Man Utd to score an away goal. He will also question why his team did not kill the tie on home soil against a handicapped Man Utd team.
However Roma still have the advantage in the tie, something which should not be discounted. Spalletti will also know that his team can score away from home as they demonstrated emphatically against Lyon in the previous round.
While Man Utd's home form in the group stages is fantastic, their home knockout form explains why they have not progressed deep into the tournament in recent years. They have only won the home leg twice in the last six years. (One of those came against Real 4-3, in 2003 courtesy of a last minute Beckham goal which still meant a European exit)
Ferguson will no doubt ask his team to put the game beyond Roma's reach but I feel that if they do not give enough respect to Roma they will be punished duly.
In the last couple of years Man Utd have gone down by the odd goal overall and I think that will be the case again. Roma's fluid play and movement up front should be enough to register an away goal and they should have enough to deny Man Utd sufficiently at the other end.
The Pick :
Manchester Utd 1-1 Roma
HANDICAP BETTING TIP :
Take ROMA +0.75AH @ 1.95 (Bet365)or
ROMA to qualify for the semis @ 2.10 (Bet365)
