Euro 2008
2008-06-21 - Netherlands vs Russia
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
UEFA Euro 2008 - Quarter-Final
St Jakob-Park, Basel
Saturday 21st June 2008 - KO 19:45
NETHERLANDS
The Dutch have been superb so far in the group stages, scoring 9 goals and winning all three games, but everything ( and I mean EVERYTHING ) has gone right for them so far.
Holland actually came into this tournament under a bit of a cloud after finishing second in qualification, and senior players pulling out of the squad rather than play under coach Marco Van Basten.
Three games into this tournament and all that is forgotten, as is the pair of 1-0 wins over little Luxembourg, and lacklustre performances against Albania and Bulgaria.
Yes, this Dutch side can be absolutely amazing, but what happens if they struggle or fall behind? We don't know yet.
RUSSIA
We've now seen the two sides of Russia during the group phase, as the Russian side looked like a quality outfit against Sweden cruising to a 2-0 win and it could of been a lot higher.
On the flipside, we saw a naive and leaderless Russia get absolutely thumped by Spain 1-4, and in this game they showed little ability to get back into a game when they had to chase it against a good team.
What we have seen is that Russia can play a great brand of football - but can they play the same way against one of Europe's elite teams?
HEAD TO HEAD
Holland and Russia have eight previous confrontations, with the Dutch having a 4-2-2 edge.
All three competitive encounters have been in European Championship finals. In 1988, the Soviet Union beat Holland 1-0 in their opening group match before the Dutch won the final 2-0.
In 1992, when Russia took part as the CIS, this match ended in a 0-0 draw in the group stage.
The most recent meeting was a friendly in February 2007 that resulted in a 4-1 victory for Holland.
TEAM NEWS
Netherlands Marco van Basten is set to revert back to his favoured starting XI after resting a host of players last time out against Romania.
That should mean only Khalid Boulahrouz and Arjen Robben keep their places from that match and Ruud van Nistelrooy, Andre Ooijer and Dirk Kuyt will all return to the side.
Russia coach Guus Hiddink will name an unchanged line-up to the one that beat Sweden 2-0 in their final group game.
THE VERDICT
I do rate the Dutch team as the better side, perhaps half a goal better (on average), but that still only means that they will win the game within 90 minutes around 50% of the time.
As such the odds on the favourites seem a little be overdone - and there does appear to be some value on taking the underdogs on handicap.
The Pick :
Netherlands 1-1 Russia (or 2-1)
BEST BETTING TIP :
The Dutch are my favourites but the price is not right, I'd want around 2.00 (evens).
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Taking RUSSIA +0.75 headstart could be worth a play, as even a 1 goal loss returns half your stake back.
