CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BETTING PICK - PORTO V MANCHESTER UTD

Champions League

2009-04-15 - Porto vs Manchester Utd

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Porto

Porto have managed to gain 2 away goals from the first leg and will look to progress to their first SF since winning this competition in 2004. They will be given confidence from the fact that they have won their first knockout game against Atletico Madrid after securing a 2-2 away draw in the first leg.

Porto currently lead the Portuguese League with a 4 point advantage over Sporting Lisbon after compiling a 16-6-2 record over the course of the season. They have a solid 7-4-1 home record, where they have scored 19 goals and only conceded 6. In the Champions League, Porto have a 4-3-2 record and are 2-1-1 at home.

Porto are currently riding a 27 game unbeaten run in all competitions and they have won 20 of those games. Porto are unbeaten in 13 games at home in all competitions and they have won 4 of their last 5 games there.

The only draw was in the Champions League against Atletico Madrid. A big building block for Porto in relation to this game is that they have kept 5 clean sheets in a row at home and have only conceded 4 goals in their last 8 games. Porto have only failed to score in 1 of their last 7 games.

Jesualdo Ferreira, the Porto coach, is banned from the touchline here. Porto are expected to start with the same XI that played at Old Trafford last week.

Manchester United

United have it all to do here if they are to make the Semi Finals for the 3rd season in a row. United need to become the first English side to win in Porto and to overturn recent history- they have not managed to progress in a tie where they have failed to win the first leg at home in 3 straight ties since beating Juventus in 1999 (Bayern Munich 2001, Bayer Leverkusen 2002, Milan 2005).

Its been a frustrating time of late for Sir Alex Ferguson as United have allowed Liverpool and Chelsea back into the title race with recent performances and their 7 point lead has been pegged back to 1 point, although United do have a game in hand over their rivals.

United are 22-5-4 this season and are 9-4-3 away from home where they have scored 20 goals and conceded 10. United are 3-6-0 in Champions League football this season. Away from home sees United only winning 1 of their 4 games. The other 3 draws would see United knocked out of Europe tonight.

After winning 15 of 16 games going into the home league game with Liverpool, United have since gone 2-1-2, and one of those wins came courtesy of a 92nd minute winner. They are struggling at the back, conceding 11 goals in those 5 games but they have shown they can outscore their opponents with 7 goals scored in their last 3 games.

Rio Ferdinand is back and expected to start tonight as the partnership between him and Nemanja Vidic is restored. Edwin Van der Sar and Patrice Evra are expected to also return to the side after being rested at the weekend. Cristiano Ronaldo was another rested who is going to start. Darren Flecther has an injury but other than that, United have a full squad to choose from.

Head to Head

Porto and Manchester United have a bit of history with one another. Porto managed to beat United in the late 70s in the UEFA Cup but United returned the favour by knocking Porto out of the Champions League in 1997 4-0 on aggregate.

Porto won their most recent meeting with the memorable run from Jose Mourinho down the touchline at Old Trafford as Porto scored a late equaliser to go through 3-2 on aggregate.

United do not have a good record in Porto, losing 2 and drawing the other game.

Porto will feel confident in their ability to go through as they have never lost to an English side at home.

Porto have won 7 of 8 ties they have played at home after drawing away in the first leg, while United have lost their last 4 ties when playing the second leg away from home.

Prediction

Porto will feel confident in their ability to go through with their formidable home record against English sides and with the history of winning ties after drawing the first leg away from home. They have a full squad to choose from and I expect them to cause many problems for United as they did at Old Trafford.

United have it all do here but have been reminding people of their liking for doing things first- first English team to compete in the European Cup, first English team to win the competition and now looking to be the first English team to win in Porto. They have looked very vulnerable at the back and this leads me to believe they will have to score at least 2 goals if they want to win this game.

I think this game is going to be as close as the bookies are predicting. United have all the quality to still win this tie but they have struggled away from home in the Champions League for goals so I feel it will be up to their defence to ensure progress. However, recently they have looked suspect at the back and this is going to cause problems. After all the talk of firsts, I think the first goal is going to determine the winner of this tie tonight.

Overall, I have a sneaky feeling that Porto will score first, and United will fight back... Unfortunately leaving it too late to turn the tie around and exit Europe

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

I have predicted a 1-1 draw but I will have a saver on 1-2 Manchester United