Italian Serie A
2009-04-25 - Fiorentina vs AS Roma
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: Italy, Serie A
Saturday 25th April 2009 - Kickoff 19:30
Fiorentina (5th - Home Form : 11-2-2 23:11)
Fiorentina lost 1-3 at Udinese last Sunday, and a key factor was the re-organised midfield combinations with the absences of Riccardo Montolivo and Felipe Melo.
Fortunately for Fiorentina, fourth placed Genoa also lost, and so Fiornetina are still well in the fight for 4th place (just points behind) and a lucrative spot in the Champions League next season.
Montolivo is back in the side this weekend, while Melo is still suspended, but the Viola will be hoping that the Stadio Franchi crowd can help the side record another home win.
AS Roma (6th - Away Form : 4-4-8 23:30)
Roma grabbed a Champions League lifeline last weekend, beating Lecce 3-2 on Rome to close the gap on 4th placed Genoa to 5 points - with 6 games to play.
That gap probably means that Roma have to win this fixture as well to have any chance of finishing in the top four.
Roma, still have a large number of injuries and suspensions in the squad as the are still dealing with the fallout of the crazy Roman derby.
Probable Teams
Frey;
Zauri, Dainelli, Gamberini, Pasqual;
Semioli, Montolivo, Donadel, Kuzmanovic;
Gilardino, Jovetic
Roma :
Artur;
Motta, Diamoutene, Panucci, Riise;
Pizarro, De Rossi;
Brighi, Perrotta, Baptista;
Totti
The Betting Verdict
Fiorentina have been in better overall form recently, and the return of Riccardo Montolivo should mean a better display this weekend.
Roma have been conceding far too many goals with 30 let in on the road, and the Roma backline has leaked 13 goals in the last five games.
I believe that Fiorentina have at least a 50%+ chance of winning this fixture and the 2.50 (3/2) on offer for the home side is far too big a price to ignore.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Fiorentina 2-1 AS Roma
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take FIORENTINA at great value as I'd expected to see prices around evens (2.00)
