Rugby League

2025-09-26 - Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks

A Sports Betting Pick by Stu

Melbourne storm v Cronulla Sharks
Rugby League : Australia : NRL Season 2025
Friday 26th September 2025 - KO 1950 AEST

Melbourne Storm

Melbourne come in with a familiar mix of challenge and promise, once again making a semi-final after a solid but not outstanding victory over the Bulldogs in week one 26-18. That victory provided the Storm with the luxury of a week of to rest up at a crucial time of the year and allow injured players like Hughes to return from injury.

Key injuries and suspensions have made for a messy finals campaign; among them, Jahrome Hughes has recovered from a fractured arm, and Ryan Papenhuyzen has only recently cleared protocols, meaning Storm’s spine has been tested and have had little time together.

Even so, they’ve found ways to win — drawing on depth, a seasoned defensive effort, and clever game management. AAMI Park looms large: home advantage has never looked so precious, and the Storm know that they must deliver both physicality and execution if they are to progress.

Team news – halfback Jahrome Hughes fracture arm and dislocated shoulder, fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen and back-rower Shawn Blore all return, this moves Nick Meaney back to the centres.

Cronulla Sharks

Cronulla arrive having shown grit in recent weeks, coming through 2 sudden death matches, beating the Roosters 20-10 in week one and last weekend taking care of the minor premiers who lost both their matches in the post season 12-32. Their demolition of Canberra last Saturday in their semi was emphatic, their backs-to-the-wall pressure translated into points and territory and in the end the victory was an easy one.

Nicho Hynes leadership in halves, the punch of the forwards, and dangerous speed on the edges give them tools to cause trouble — especially as Melbourne are patched up and not fully firing.

But Cronulla also carry the weight of history and expectation: traditionally this is where Cronulla fall over, therefore suppressing errors, staying composed under finals pressure, and overcoming Melbourne’s home-ground advantage will test their mettle.

Team news – only one change, Oregon Kaufusi returns – consistency for Cronulla who have named the same team more or less for a number of weeks in a row.

Odds

Melbourne at home are favoured, $1.40 to $3.10, the line is 8.5 points and combined points 41.5

The Betting Verdict

When finals heat up, it’s rarefied air: intensity doubles, mistakes magnified, and small edges become decisive. On Friday night, Melbourne Storm host Cronulla Sharks in a Preliminary Final at AAMI Park — a match that promises to test everything each side has got. For Melbourne, it’s about hitting their stride, reassembling around injuries, and showing that when the stakes are highest, they still own the moment.

For Cronulla, it’s another chance to rewrite their fairly average finals history and prove that their late-season resilience is no flash in the pan. Finals can be very cruel in their simplicity: a dropped ball, a late offload, a mis-read in defence — each one can shift momentum sharply. Discipline in defence, choosing when to stretch the map vs when to hold shape, could swing the balance.

If the Storm can control field position from early sets — forcing Cronulla to defend deep and making them earn every metre — they’ll build pressure and it will become very difficult for the Sharks. Cronulla need to respond quickly and start strong, this will not allow Melbourne to settle into a rhythm and Cronulla will be in the match for a long time.

These teams played each other twice in 2025, the first meeting was in Cronulla, Cronulla led 25-12 at HT and held on to win 31-26 and the most recent meeting, Melbourne won easily 30-6 at AAMI park. Melbourne lead the H2H easily 31-18 from 49 matches, while the venue stats lean heavily to Melbourne too, Storm winning 76% at home and Cronulla winning just 3 times from 17 attempts.

I see the first half being a very tight, tense affair — the kind of game where momentum swings matter, but execution wins out in the end. Melbourne, with their home crowd, which I believe will be the difference in big games like this, are favourites.

Cronulla will push hard, make breaks, maybe even take the lead early, but Melbourne’s composure in closing stages should be the difference – all assuming the injury clouds for Melbourne don’t come back to bite them.

I think the betting line has enough points in this match, I assume both teams won't die wondering making the total combined points over 41.5 a great option here and is the suggested option.

For odds that return a little more, consider :
- first try scorer Warbrick $9.00 for Melbourne
- or first try scorer Wilton $31 for Cronulla.
- I also see the Sharks staying within 10.5 points too.