Tennis
2025-08-18 - Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis: ATP Cincinnati Final
Monday 18th August 2025 - Scheduled 3pm
8pm (British Time)
Preview
These two players are clearly the top two on the ATP Tour and it will take a brave person to oppose either winning the next Grand Slam at the US Open.
It was Carlos Alcaraz who beat Jannik Sinner at the French Open and that continued what had been an increasing dominance in the rivalry, but the Italian earned revenge with a very strong win in the Wimbledon Final to prevent Alcaraz from winning for a third straight year at SW19.
After losing five times in a row to Carlos Alcaraz, that win at Wimbledon feels very importsant for Jannik Sinner who has seemingly overwhelmed everyone else barring the Spaniard.
To back up that point, since the start of 2024, Jannik Sinner has lost just THREE hard court matches and he has won all three hard court Slams played in those twenty months. However, TWO of those losses have been against Carlos Alcaraz and the World Number 1 has not beaten him on this surface since October 2023 and so this is another opportunity for Sinner to lay down a marker to his fiercest rival ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season.
Despite the head to head record, Jannik Sinner's win at Wimbledon will be one that has helped him overcome the mental hurdle, especially considering he had Championship Points before losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the French Open Final.
The match up is clearly a tough one, but Sinner is playing at an incredible level right now and it may be one that is difficult for Carlos Alcaraz to reach on a consistent basis.
There is nothing wrong with the way that Carlos Alcaraz is playing here in Cincinnati and on the hard courts in general, but the match feels more about what Sinner is able to do.
If the World Number 1 serves as well as he has been, he should have the majority of the Break Point chances in this Final and that is key to winning the match. Last year Carlos Alcaraz was the superior return player in the two matches played on the hard courts against Jannik Sinner and the World Number 2 will be inspired to try and lay down a marker ahead of the US Open, but Jannik Sinner showed again in Melbourne how much he has improved and he may just have the momentum to back up the win at Wimbledon by snapping the hard court run of defeats against this opponent.
Prediction
Odd scheduling aside, the ATP Cincinnati Final looks like being a potential marker for the outcome of the US Open when the top two men's players meet.
It could be another back and forth affair, but Jannik Sinner snapped a losing run against Carlos Alcaraz and can back that up here.
The Pick :
Jannik Sinner 2-0 Carlos Alcaraz
