Tennis
2026-01-18 - Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby
A Sports Betting Pick by ArmchairPunter
Tennis : Australia Open: 1st Round
Venue: Melbourne Park
Sunday 18th January 2026, 0800hrs (GMT)
This matchup pairs two contrasting profiles, with limited head-to-head history but clear stylistic intrigue. Alexander Bublik and Jenson Brooksby have faced each other once at professional level, a straight-sets hard-court win for Brooksby in Canada in August 2022. While that result offers a reference point, both players arrive in very different form this time around.
Bublik enters the contest riding strong momentum. He has won four matches in a row and holds an 8–2 record over his last ten, underpinned by an impressive 52–23 tally over the past 52 weeks. Crucially, his recent record against top-50 opponents (19–14 in the last year) suggests a player performing with greater consistency and confidence than earlier in his career, when volatility often undermined his talent.
Brooksby’s recent numbers are more uneven. A 5–5 split over his last ten matches and a 28–24 record across the past year point to fluctuating form, though there are positives beneath the surface. His results on clay stand out in particular, where he has gone 6–1 in the last 52 weeks, highlighting his ability to construct points patiently and control tempo on slower courts.
The matchup is defined by opposing approaches. Bublik’s game revolves around a dominant serve and first-strike aggression, averaging over 11 aces per match. He looks to shorten points, apply pressure early, and ride momentum. Improved results across all surfaces over the past year suggest he is better able to sustain rallies when required, rather than relying purely on shot-making.
Brooksby operates at the other end of the spectrum. With one of the lowest ace counts on tour, his success is built on depth, variation, and defensive resilience. He thrives in extended exchanges, disrupting rhythm and forcing opponents to hit extra balls — a tactic that paid off in their previous meeting.
The Betting Verdict
Bublik has improved immensely since four years ago and with winning momentum and a wicked first serve behind him, he looks a good bet giving away -5.5 games.
The Pick :
Alexander Bublik 3-0 Jenson Brooksby
