Tennis
2026-02-24 - Jakub Mensik vs Hubert Hurkacz
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Tennis : ATP 500 Dubai First Round
Tuesday 24th February 2026 - Scheduled 2pm
10am (British Time)
Preview
When they met at the Australian Open in January 2024, Jakub Mensik was an 18 year old trying to make an impact on the Tour, while Hubert Hurkacz was a top ten Ranked player.
The match lasted five sets before Hurkacz was able to pull through and the big Pole earned another win over Jakub Mensik last year on the clay courts of Rome.
That time it was Jakub Mensik who was Ranked higher than Hubert Hurkacz, but a bigger gap has developed between the players ahead of this latest match up in Dubai.
Only ten places separated them in May 2025, but now Mensik is on the edge of cracking the top ten of the World Rankings, while Hubert Hurkacz has slipped out of the top 50 as injuries and a loss of form have become contributing factors.
Hubert Hurkacz won four matches at the United Cup in the build up to the Australian Open, but has lost every match played since winning a First Round contest in Melbourne. The serve continues to be a huge weapon, but Hurkacz has been struggling on the return and that has led to a number of disappointing results at tournaments that have been played.
Jakub Mensik had been playing well in Melbourne, but was forced to give Novak Djokovic a walkover as he was not fit enough to take his place on the court. That has been one of the disappointing aspects of his career so far with injuries needing to be overcome, but Mensik has shown plenty of mental resolve and he bounced back to reach the Semi Final in Doha last week.
He has already won a title on the hard courts and Jakub Mensik will be confident enough in his serve, even if the numbers are a little below expectations- he has won 65% of service points played, but that has only led to 81% of service holds as he has perhaps struggled to win the big points.
However, the likelihood is that Mensik is not going to be facing a lot of Break Points in this one as long as he serves as he has been, while his own return is not expected to have the same impact against a server as effective as his opponent.
The younger player should eventually prevail, but it could be similar to the Doha Semi Final where you have to believe the servers can do just enough to force at least one Tie-Breaker.
In the two previous matches which have had eight sets played, three have needed Tie-Breakers and Jakub Mensik was not broken in the match on a clay court last year. In that one he took one Break Point, but a faster surface should suit both when it comes to the serving power and it would be a surprise if at least one of the sets is not decided by a first to seven point situation.
Prediction
Look for the serving prowess of both players to come together for long enough to have at least one Tie-Breaker needed to separate them.
The Pick :
Jakub Mensik 2-1 Hubert Hurkacz
