Date: 13-05-2011
Time: 19:40
Venue: MCG, Melbourne

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I have written quite a few previews on these teams over the last two years or so and this one will be another massive clash. It’s a game I would be going to if it wasn’t stupid university gathering on the same day/evening. Two undefeated teams battling for top spot, but more importantly testing out the credentials of the Cats against the reigning premier.

Collingwood Magpies

The Magpies have had a bye and will be rather fresh for this blockbuster. I am not sure if it is as big a game to them because they seem in a pretty good place right now so it could be a game that is pretty close.

Across the back the man who can really make a difference in a top line clash like this is Harry O. His athleticism, ability to read the game and make smart decisions make him an elite AFL defender and if he is allowed to dictate play across half-back the Cats will have a tough night of it in terms of scoring. Heath Shaw’s run and carry will be vital and Ben Reid could get the job on James Podsiadly who, after a quiet start has in my opinion played three pearlers.

In the midfield the battle is evenly poised although you would have to give the edge to the Pies. With more than ten names who can run through the middle they are a force to be reckoned with and the barometer of the Pies this year seems to be Scott Pendlebury. If you can limit his impact you may be able to come close to stopping the Pies. Dane Swan, Sharrod Wellingham, Jarryd Blair and Dale Thomas are all goal-kicking midfielders and that will be a major concern for the Cats, even though the Cats have goal kicking midfielders of their own.

In the forward line it appears that the Pies have the edge again. They have been powerhouses this season with Cloke and Dawes getting into the action. I see one of them getting shut down this week and it will the one that Tom Lonergan plays on. With that in mind the Pies still have countless other scoring options in and around 50 like Beams and even Leigh Brown.

Geelong Cats

The Cats weren’t troubled last week as they made history winning 25 in a row at Skilled Stadium. This week there is a serious challenge ahead and they will be hurting from that embarrassing lost in last year’s Prelim Final. Trust me, I still am.

The defence of the Cats needs to be at its very best. One man who I think can rise to the challenge is Lonergan. When the Cats were getting steamrolled by the Hawks a few weeks back Lonergan stood up and went to Franklin and did a massive job on him for 3 quarters. He will need to repeat this for 4 quarters against either Cloke or Dawes. Personally I think Dawes is a better option, but that’s the coach’s call. Milburn, Scarlett, Mackie and Enright will provide the experience in the backline and with good decision making I think they can make a game of it.

Through the middle the Cats have the second best midfield in the league. Varcoe is an emerging top-liner and it is games like this one that he needs to prove his worth. He adds that extra speed through the centre and will pivotal on Friday night. The speed is a big concern so Wojcinski has to have a run through the guts too, while it will be up to Chapman, Selwood and Bartel to demonstrate their class.

The forward line is looking more menacing since Podsiadly has started getting back to his best form. He took 10 marks last week and a repeat effort will see him kicking a few goals at the very least. Steve Johnson should be back in the fold this week and his freakish talents will be required to keep Geelong in with a chance. The x-factor for Geelong is Matty Stokes. His speed and skill is not always shown, but if he steps up in this one and puts himself in the situations where he can kick 2-3 important goals, you just never know.

The Verdict

I think the Pies are mentally strong now and they win a close one, but not after a fight.

The Pick :

Collingwood Magpies 109- Geelong Cats 101

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

75%

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Geelong +17.5 points at 1.92 at Centrebet.