AFL Aussie Rules
2011-05-15 - Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Time: 14:10 AEST
Venue: Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
This will be a good game in pristine conditions under the roof. No excuses here for the Dogs as their season is just about on the line. The Tigers have won three straight and are on fire. This could be the day they make it four on the trot.
Western Bulldogs
The Dogs were shocking in Canberra last weekend and only a late burst in the final term saw the score become respectable. This week will be vital for their season and they need to lift a fair bit to beat the rampant Tigers.
In defence I am not sure how the Dogs will tackle the Tigers. Brian Lake and Dale Morris will be the focal points of the defence and their experience is required in no short amount as they attempt to quell a Tiger side that is proving they can score from a dozen or so options every week.
Through the guts the Dogs no longer have the class when matched up with the Tigers. Cooney and Griffen are two definite game breakers but they need to really find some consistency and lift the Dogs onto their back and carry them, if they are to make the finals. I know it is early in the season, but this game is crucial for the Dogs, because it could be somewhat of a changing of the guard if they can’t repel the young Tigers.
In the forward line Barry Hall is vital but I sense he won’t be enough. The Dogs forward used to be a lot more unpredictable but now some the spark is gone and Sherman is really useful if he can chime in with a few goals. I think the problem for the Dogs will be scoring enough. Their last three games have had scores of give or take a few 78, 59 and 65. That will fall well short of the Tigers I reckon.
Richmond Tigers
Wow! The Tigers are smoking hot right now and don’t appear to be slowing down any time soon. I think they can get a win here and am quite surprised they will start firm underdogs.
In defence the Tigers are not relying on any one individual but they are playing good collective footy. The problem with the Tigers is they cannot contain teams too well. While their offense is potent their defence is still far from 100 percent and the Dogs can be expected to post their best score of the last month, but I just question if that will be enough.
Through the centre of the field it is the same names again. Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio are the hottest trio going around right now. Martin and Cotchin in particular do damage and go forward to kick goals. Cotchin got 4 majors last week and he is the player to watch in this one. If the Dogs tag him too much it will spell disaster as Deledio and Martin rack up the touches and destroy the Dogs in the middle.
Jack Riewoldt is not bagging 6 a week anymore, but who says he needs to when Tyrone Vickery, Nahas and Jake King are popping up with 6-7 between them every week. Riewoldt will bounce back but if there is too much pressure on other players he may become freer and run up a nice total.
The Verdict
The Tigers should win on their current form. Take the unexpected points to make it certain.
The Pick :
Richmond Tigers 119- Western Bulldogs 94
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Richmond +6.5 points at 1.92 on Centrebet.
