Florida Gators vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Dolphin Stadium, Miami
Thursday, 8th January 2009 - 8:00 p.m. ET

Weather : Clear, 60 degrees, light winds

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The biggest betting event of the college football season is knocking at your door.

It’s the BCS Championship Game between the #1 Florida Gators and the #2 Oklahoma Sooners, the last and by far the most important of the 34 bowl games this year.

It’s also your best chance to get paid - casual bettors who don’t know the end zone from a hole in the ground will be throwing their money into the pot, just for kicks. They might lack a basic, fundamental understanding of the two teams in question, but you won’t.

Florida Gators : 12-1 SU, 10-2 ATS, Over 8-4

Points per game: 45.2 (No. 3 in FBS)
Points allowed: 12.8 (No. 4)
Passing yards gained: 212.6 (No. 62)
Passing yards allowed: 174.0 (No. 16)
Rushing yards gained: 229.8 (No. 11)
Rushing yards allowed: 105.3 (No. 15)

Oklahoma Sooners: 12-1 SU, 10-2 ATS, Over 11-1

Points per game: 54.0 (No. 1 in FBS)
Points allowed: 24.5 (No. 58)
Passing yards gained: 356.5 (No. 3)
Passing yards allowed: 253.1 (No. 99)
Rushing yards gained: 205.5 (No. 17)
Rushing yards allowed: 106.0 (No. 16)

Analysis

The Sooners look very much like the weaker defensive team in this matchup, based on points and passing yards allowed. However, this is partly a product of playing in the Big 12 Conference.

The Big 12 is top-heavy with offense, from Mike Leach’s spread at Texas Tech to Mack Brown’s Fiesta Bowl-winning program at Texas.

Florida’s defense encountered far less resistance coming out of the SEC this year.

A look at the strength of schedule for both teams (as calculated by stathead Brian Fremeau) provides more context to the numbers above. Oklahoma schedule is ranked No.6 in the FBS, while Florida’s is No.16. But that was during the regular season.

The bowls have told a different tale so far, and it’s not been kind to the Big 12 South:

Holiday Bowl: Oregon (-1) 42, Oklahoma State 31
Cotton Bowl: Mississippi (+3.5) 47, Texas Tech 34
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (-8) 24, Ohio State 21

That’s two upset losses and a stunning come-from-behind victory by the Longhorns to avoid a third. The Ole Miss result is especially significant, because the Rebels were the only team to beat Florida this year.

The Rebs were 23-point puppies when they escaped Gainesville with a 31-30 win; Ole Miss proved that wasn’t a fluke by beating yet another former #1 team in Texas Tech.

Meanwhile, the Rebs weren’t the only SEC team to end the season on a high note:
Music City Bowl: Vanderbilt (+5) 16, Boston College 14
Chick-fil-A Bowl: LSU (+4) 38, Georgia Tech 3
Capital One Bowl: Georgia (-9) 24, Michigan State 12
Liberty Bowl: Kentucky (+3) 25, East Carolina 19

True, the Crimson Tide and Gamecocks both came up short in their bowl games, but that’s still an impressive total performance by the SEC. It also throws a lot more weight behind Florida’s ability to pulverize the rest of the conference.

The Gators beat the quality foursome of LSU, Georgia, South Carolina and the ACC’s Florida State Seminoles by at least 30 points each, then downed previously undefeated Alabama (+10) 31-20 to reach the national championship game.

Oklahoma’s long list of blowouts doesn’t look quite as impressive in light of the bowl results.

The closest winning margin the Sooners had this year was by 14 points against Kansas (+19.5), but they also had a relatively forgiving road schedule - OU’s toughest test was in Stillwater, where the Cowboys (+10) gave a spirited effort before losing 61-41.

The Red River Shootout loss to Texas was on neutral ground at the Cotton Bowl; Florida’s victories over the Bulldogs and Tide were neutral-site contests.

The Sooners still have the offensive firepower to beat any team on any given day, but with sophomore RB DeMarco Murray (5.6 yards per carry, 14 rushing TDs) out with a hamstring injury, the chances of Thursday being Oklahoma’s day are pretty slim.

The Pick :

Oklahoma 27-35 Florida