Tennis
2010-01-26 - Australian Open - vs Quarter 1 Preview
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Quarter One
This is world number 1, Roger Federer’s quarter which initially had main seeds Davydenko, Verdasco and Simon involved. However, Simon has pulled out with an injury and his spot has gone to Ferrer who I’m sure is delighted to be in this quarter after with Federer after losing in the first round in Aukland this week.
I will split each quarter in half so it’s easier to break down with the possible opponents for the top seeds unless I see a “dog” likely to surprise a few. With that said lets start with last years losing finalist Federer, he has a relatively nice start against Andreev a guy he will beat most likely in second gear. Up next is likely to be Chela a guy who also won’t trouble Fed-Ex, Chela is a guy in decline and is likely to need 4 or even 5 sets to get past his first round opponent in Hanescu. In the round of 32 he is due to face Montanes a clay courter who has been really impressive on the hard in Aukland last week but again this is way out of his depth.
In the next quarter of the top quarter we have 3 good players, Ferrer, Hewitt and Baghdatis. Hewitt has a really easy run till the last 32 where he is likely to face either Baghdatis or Ferrer. Baggy is the favourite here as he’s on fire winning in Sydney this week but Ferrer is the better player so we shall see. This sets up Hewitt – Baghdatis which is a rematch of the recent Sydney ATP event that the Cypriot came back from a set down to win, they also had a 5 setter at the Aussie Open 2 years ago which Hewitt won. I just edge Hewitt out of the two because he is the fresher of the two and has 2 easy games whilst Ferrer is no push over for Baggy. I make it a Hewitt – Federer last 16 game, which is a no brainier in favour of Federer, Fed-Ex is 16-7 life time v Hewitt and has won the last 14 with 10 odd of those on Hard. Game-Set-Match Federer.
The next quarter of this quarter involves Verdasco as the obvious favourite to advance with Sela and Ferrero as dark horses to pull off an upset. Verdasco will beat Ball in the first although I think the Huge severing ball may be good for a set but the class will show in the end. Dudi Sela has a great run at Chennai and should also worry Verdasco a little in the next round but like Ball just won’t have enough over 5 sets. The likely last 32 game will be against Ferrero but he is cold at the moment and if he loses to Kubek I’d not be surprised at all, either way Verdasco like his previous two opponents will prevail into the last 16.
The final quarter sees one of my favourite players at the moment in Davydenko. After winning in Doha beating Nadal and Federer back to back he really is a huge threat this year. Davy will kill Kindlmann and then old timer Moya before a potential encounter with Gulbis who also took a set off Federer in Doha. However, Davydenko is surely too hot for Gulbis and also has 2-0 h2h against him with both wins on hard with the last victory coming when Gulbis was ranked 41 in the world, today he is ranked 84. In the last 16 game between Verdasco – Davydenko we are in for an epic I think. Verdasco loves it in Australia, last year he got to the semi finals of this event and he just recently won the Kooyong Exchange tournament beating Gonzalez, Djokovic and Tsonga. Davy has a 6-1 record over Verdasco winning the last 3 but none where on outside hard. This game can be looked at into greater detail nearer the time but here’s a devasting stat against Verdasco, Fernando has won just 2 of his last 10 games against a top 10 player and in the last year has only 4 wins from 19 games. Davydenko on the other hand is 8 wins from last 10 against top 10 players as well as winning 10 in a row against left handed players. For me Davydenko wins this.
Quarter 1 – Quarter Final
I have this Federer – Davydenko in what looks to be a great game. I feel for Davydenko because although I think he will beat Verdasco it wont be easy and could need 5 sets, whilst Federer in my opinion will walk this games and like the potential Hewitt game he’ll face Davydenko after playing a really long tough game in he round before.
Davydenko has a brutal record v Federer, Federer has won 12 of 14 but Davydenko has won the last 2 in London on inside hard and Doha last week on outside hard. I would happily take a punt on Davydenko to beat Federer if he makes easyish work of Verdasco the day before, ie within no more than 4 sets. A fresh-ish Davydenko clearly has Federer’s number at the moment and definitely has a chance to beat the world number one.
However, due to the kindness of Federer’s draw I think he has too much in the tank by the time they square off and will hold off the Russian.
The Pick :
Federer - Davydenko Qtr final
BEST BETTING TIP :
Most likely to win Qtr: Federer 1.50 at SkybetNext best Davydenko 3.75 at Skybet
