Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa
Football: England, Premier League 2009/2010
Saturday, 6th February 2010- Kickoff 5:30pm

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Tottenham (4th) Home : 8-1-3 28:8

Tottenham are making another challenge for a top four spot this season, but the cracks are beginning to show a bit now at White Hart Lane with the fans beginning to wonder if Happy Harry Redknapp really has what it takes to get Spurs into the Champions League.

Spurs did progress to the 5th round of the FA Cup in midweek, beating Leeds United 3-1 at Elland Road in a replay, but an extended Cup run is only going to distract from the main aim of a top four league place.

Draws with with Hull City, and Birmingham and losing at Liverpool have seen the gap between 4th and 7th close to just two points as there is a log jam developing.

Jermaine Defoe is looking sharp, and it was intersting to see how well he played in midweek against Leeds, reacting to criticism, but perhaps also validating that critic too - why isn't he that committed all the time?

Tottenham Team News :
Tottenham's new signings, Eidur Gudjohnsen and Younes Kaboul, are likely to be on the bench.

Manager Harry Redknapp may recall Ledley King after he sat out the midweek FA Cup clash with Leeds, but Roman Pavlyuchenko (groin) is out.

Injured : Assou-Ekotto (hip), Cudicini (broken wrists), Lennon (groin), Woodgate (groin), Pavlyuchenko (groin)

Aston Villa (7th) Away : 5-3-3 14:11

Aston Villa are a counter-attacking side - no matter whether manager Martin O'Neill likes to hear it or not - and Villa are doing it very well with the team having won five out of their last six games on the road in all competitions, including a superb 1-0 victory at Old Trafford.

Last weekend's 2-0 win at Craven Cottage was just the third home defeat of the campaign for Fulham and it was done with some comfort too after Villa scored twice just before halftime.

Aston Villa Team News :
Aston Villa hope to welcome back John Carew, who has missed the last four matches with a knee injury.

Stephen Warnock must rest his shin injury for two weeks, but Stiliyan Petrov (Achilles) is fit to play.

Doubtful : Carew (knee)
Injured : Albrighton (ankle), Reo-Coker (ankle), Harewood (foot), Warnock (shin)

Head to Head

Traditionally, Tottenham like hosting Aston Villa, but the Villians have improved over recent seasons and have got something out of their trip to White Hart last in three of the last four seasons.

Two years ago these sides played out an entertaining 4-4 draw, and last year Villa stung Tottenham with a 2-1 victory, Villa's first victory her in nine seasons.

The two teams played out a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in November, with Spurs dominating the game for periods.

The Betting Verdict

This game will suit Aston Villa, as there is no way that Spurs will sit back, the home side will definately be playing for all three points.

That opens up the possibility for Villa to launch speedy counter attacks, and it goes without saying that the first goal will be crucial.

When Arsenal scored first against Villa at the Emirates over Christmas, it changed the game dynamic, Villa had to open up and the Arsenal went on to win 3-0.

So Tottenham can win this game, but so can Villa, and for my money there is very little between the two sides, and certainly not as much as the odds are suggesting.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Tottenham 1-1 Aston Villa

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Tottenham 38% - Draw 33% - Aston Villa 29%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

The odds on either the draw or the Villa win are at better than fair value, but that will not be my main bet.

HANDICAP BETTING :

Instead, I'll take ASTON VILLA +1/2 goal start to avoid defeat.