Inter v Sampdoria
Football : Italy : Serie A
San Siro, Milan
Saturday 20th February 2010 - Kickoff 20.45 Local

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Inter Milan (1st)

The Inter juggernaut has stalled a little in the last week. They were disappointing in a 0-0 draw in Naples last weekend (albeit a fixture they have usually struggled with in recent years), and weren’t overly convincing in the 1-1 draw at Parma before that. However back on home turf they are formidable and have only dropped four points from a possible 36 at the San Siro. They have won every home game since 8th November.

Inter have quality from front to back and are ruthlessly efficient under Mourinho, despite his bizarre attempts off the pitch to get himself sacked. Milito has 14 goals in 21 games, while Balotelli, Etoo and new signing Pandev have also been scoring freely. Even the defence are dangerous, Maicon has a very impressive 3 goals and 6 assists from full back.

While the majority of the teams in Serie A struggle with finances, and the playing quality regresses accordingly, Inter continue to build and improve and widen the gap between themselves and the also rans.

The only real risk for Inter backers here is Tuesdays Champions League tie with Chelsea. While there is no doubt that Mourinho will name a strong side for Samp, will the players have the upcoming European tie in the backs of their minds? You would also imagine Mourinho is highly motivated to make a point against his former employees. In the Champions League group stages Inter won 4 and lost 2 in the domestic games that preceded a European tie. Both these losses were away ties though (Samp and Juve). The home fans shouldn’t allow Inter to take their eye off the ball here, but it is still a negative.

Sampdoria (5th)

After a miserable November and December, Sampdoria have flown up the table in the last few weeks with four wins on the trot. Of these, last weekends 2-0 win at home to Fiorentina was the most impressive. Fiorentina may have had their eye on the trip to Munich in midweek (and their performance in Munich would suggest they did), but they simply couldn’t live with Samp’s organisation and desire. Samp’s defence has been very porous in recent weeks but for the first time they looked genuinely solid against the Viola.

Samp's form has coincided with the dropping of talisman Antonio Cassano. Whether the upturn in results is down to the dropping of Antonio Cassano or not, Del Neri’s men have become much more cohesive in the last few weeks. New loan signings Storari (GK)and Guberti(MF) have fitted in well.

Sampdoria beat Inter Milan 1-0 in September, the result that really got people talking about their flying start to the season. But this was at home, where Samp are really strong this year. Away from home, Samp are vulnerable. The blucerchiati may be in fine form and challenging for the Champions League spots, but on paper Inter away looks a severe test.

Having been on the end of thrashings in Milan and Turin this season, it appears that Samp have a habit of collapsing in the big away games. They will need all their new found confidence and willpower to avoid the same in the San Siro in Saturday nights live TV game.

Head to head

Sampdoria got draws in this fixture in 2006 and 2003 but apart from that, unsurprisingly, Inter dominate and usually win this one. Inter won this fixture last season 1-0 with a 45th minute Adriano goal.

Match Prediction

I have tried desperately to find reasons to back Sampdoria here, and on paper you can make a case:
• A 5th placed team in such good form
• have already beaten Inter this season,
• Inter come off the back of two draws
• Inter may be more interested in the huge upcoming Champions League clash with Chelsea.
• Inter have a reasonable gap at the top of the table - it wouldn’t be disastrous if they dropped points here.

All of this means there are real chances of an upset. If you could get Samp for around 10 (decimal) they would look a great longshot bet.

However there are two reasons why, despite all this, Inter Milan still look the bet.
• Inter are simply streets ahead of Sampdoria in terms of quality. Samp may have hit some form but in November and December they were wretched and 9 of the 11 players are the same.
• Samp have no history of winning away to Inter and would be delighted with a draw

The Betting Verdict

The prices have adjusted to reflect Inter Milan's slump, their champions league game, and Sampdoria's form.

At around 8/1 Sampdoria simply aren’t big enough for me to follow here.

Anyone looking for an upset would probably be looking at the draw, but even then I would still be wanting a touch more than the 4 on offer. The generous 1.6 offered on Inter Milan has now gone, but I make them 66% likely to win which means anything more than 1.5 looks OK.

Bearing in mind the risks, it may be worth looking to the half time/full time markets here to pump the odds and make a more attractive if higher risk bet:

Sampdoria have been ahead at half time in only one of their 12 away games this season so it is a relatively safe assumption that this outcome can be ignored.

And we also expect Inter to win at full time, so that leaves us with Inter HT/Inter FT at 2.4 or Draw HT/Inter FT at 4.5.

Inter have won at HT/FT in 6 of their 12 home games, while Drawing at HT and winning at FT in 4 of the 12, and on this basis the prices on both options look reasonable.

The Statistics :

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Inter Milan 66% - Draw 24% - Sampdoria 10%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Inter Milan should win this at 1.55, but a shock is not out of the question.

Risk/reward suggests it is worth considering smaller stakes on Inter HT/FT at 2.30 at Paddy Power

If you think Inter Milan may have their minds on Chelsea, you could try the HT/FT bet with Draw HT/Inter FT at 4.5 at Ladbrokes