Sunday 7th March 2010

Chelsea

Last 5 League Games At Home : W4-D0-L1 F16-A7

One week ago, before the Blues faced Man City they led the Premiership by 4 points and were looking to extend their lead at the top, come the evening they were 1 point clear and had just lost a home game 4-2! Now can the Blues bounce back against Stoke in this FA Cup quarter final tie at Stamford Bridge?

The loss to City has certainly raised alarm bells in the Chelsea camp, this game saw just how important the likes of Ashley Cole are to this side, especially going forward, whilst Terry and Carvalho looked like schoolboys playing in their first game together and most importantly when Drogba doesn’t play well Chelsea look poor.

In an ideal world Chelsea would like a relegation placed side coming to the Bridge, low on confidence following last weeks embarrassing defeat instead they face a Stoke side that are comfortably in mid-table and will no doubt go all out looking for a semi final place which of course is played at Wembley.

This is sure to be a high tempo game and whether Chelsea can regroup only remains to be seen, the long break could work in their favour ie. Gives them time to prepare look over things but given many of the side have been involved in Internationals this week I can’t see how any real training work has been performed. This lack of preparation could cost Chelsea a place in the semis.

When looking at the Chelsea home form, it’s very impressive, sorry it was impressive until last weeks game has tarnished a flawless record of at the time 12 wins from 13 and just 8 conceded. Yet, if last week taught us anything is that if you put the pressure on Chelsea they are not as solid mentally as they were under Mourinho. When the going got tough, the likes of Drogba went missing, as did Terry and Ballack completely lost his head and carelessly got sent off on a lunge on Carlo Tevez. They only player to hold his head high was Lampard who got both the Chelsea goals and they will need Frank, John and most importantly Didier to be at the races for Sunday’s tie.

Team news is that as mentioned above Ballack is suspended, as is Beletti who to got sent off last week for a straight red. Even further bad news is that explosive full back Bosingwa is out for the season with a knee injury and that Carvalho is doubt following a hamstring strain in the midweek internationals. Petr Cech remains out with his calf injury so the hapless Hilario starts in goal with a possible change at left back with Zhirkov starting ahead of Malouda who moves into midfield. Alex will play if Carvalho is not fit, whilst Deco may start following his recent injury.

Predicted Chelsea Lineup : Hilario, Zhirkov, Terry, Alex, Ivanovic, Mikel, Lampard, Deco, Malouda, Drogba, Anelka.

Stoke City

Last 5 Premiership Away Games : W1-D2-L2 F3-A5

Instead of talking about how well Stoke have performed this season and that the club is a stable mid table side with possibly the biggest game of its season just around the corner; the FA Cup Qtr final tie with Chelsea for a place at Wembly. The horrible scenes from the Britania last week against Arsenal involving Shawcross and Ramsey dominate the headlines of which Stoke are being ripped apart for the way they play.

I saw the tackle and believe it was reckless but I’ve seen lots worse, don’t get me wrong Stoke are a very aggressive side and at the end of the day it’s up to the referee to decide if they breach the rules of fairness or not. In fact I read an interview with Tony Pulis and apparently before last weekend, the last 3 games with Arsenal in particular, his side received less bookings than the North Londoners so they can’t be “that dirty” as everyone makes out.

Anyways, back to the game on Sunday, it’s a huge game for Stoke, not many of their players would have played at Wembly before and if they win they will get the opportunity to do so. Looking at football matters, the away stats are not great just 1 win in the last 5 but they have been hard to beat losing just the 2 in that period. Given that this is an FA Cup tie, replays do count and Pulis’s side would love a draw in London, hoping to finish the job back at the Britania.

I think Stoke will find it hard to win at the Bridge, they have not beat a “top 4” side away from home in the Premiership yet and it’s hard to see them starting on Sunday. When looking at the away games in total, Stoke has avoided defeat 8 times in their 5 games and I think they will look to force a replay. With this in mind we may see Stoke play 4-5-1 looking to match Chelsea physically with most attacks coming on the counter or from the long throws of Delap.

I went to Chelsea last year when Stoke were the visitors and looked impressive causing Chelsea lots of problems and given there is no Essien or Ballack in the midfield I feel Stoke could boss it with the extra man.

Team news for the Potters is that they are without influential skipper Ryan Shawcross following his red card last week. Fellow defender Higginbotham is also a big doubt with a back injury whilst the pacey winger Matt Etherington faces a late fitness test.

With Shawcross out ex-Chelsea defender Huth will partner Faye with Wilkinson and Collins either side, the rest of the side should be unchanged with Sidibe doing a shift out wide if Etherington doesn’t make it.

Predicted Stoke City Lineup :
Sorensen, Wilkinson, Huth, Faye, Collins; Whitehead, Whelan, Delap, Etherington; Fuller, Sidibe.

The Betting Verdict

Chelsea are very vulnerable right now and given that the Blues certainly won’t want a replay, this could play into Stoke’s hands.

Stoke wont go down but have zero chance of European football, if the Potters can sneak a draw they will be happy and I think Stoke can take something from this game.

The Pick :

Chelsea 2-2 Stoke City

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Chelsea 66% - Draw 24% - Stoke 10%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

NO BET

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Stoke AH +1.50 at a price of 2.05 at Bet365