Manchester United V AC Milan
Football : UEFA : Champions League
Wednesday 10th March 2010 – Kickoff 7:45pm

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In 2006/2007, Manchester United led AC Milan by a 3-2 margin. Milan won the 2nd leg 3-0 and went through. Déjà vu, anyone?

Manchester United (England)

The first leg of this match turned into a bit of a goalfest, with United just about hanging on for a 3-2 win. Closer examination reveals that United were lucky not to be down 3 or 4 goals in the first half. Ronaldinho put Milan ahead early, before the Italians wasted a plethora of chances. Then came Scholes to the rescue with the equaliser before half time. It took yet another Rooney masterclass for the English champions to go 3-1 ahead, before the defensive frailties allowed Seedorf to get one more back for Milan.

Here are the facts, United are not strong at the back, far from it. They will be without Wes Brown, who broke his leg in the last game, and Ferdinand has been struggling through injuries and is less than solid. Van Der Sar isn’t the rock he once was and this has been exploited on more than one occasion.

So how is it that this team are top of the very difficult Premier League and ahead in this tie? No points for guessing, it’s Wayne Rooney.

The scouse frontman has been the player for United, and if it weren’t for him, they would be having a very disappointing year. In games where he has not performed, they have struggled. One only has to look as far back as last week to see that the mighty United required a desperate goal from Scholes to sneek past Wolverhampton.

Fulham have thumped this side 3-0, and even Burnley managed to win. Make no mistake, United need Rooney in this game, and they need him to score, or they are screwed. It’s no wonder that he has now been named in the starting lineup, what with Owen out for the season and Berbatov looking lost and impotent.

AC Milan (Italy)

It’s quite simple for Milan, really. They trail by only one goal, but their opponents have 2 away goals. So, the Rossoneri need to come to Manchester and win by two clear goals.

This means that Milan will probably need to score at least 3 goals, making the analysis for their tactics quite simple. We know they won’t be sitting back, waiting, trying to counter etc. They’re going to have to pour forward, bombard the Red Devil’s defence and go at them hard. They managed to score 2 goals against this team on a night when they could have easily had 6 if they had played to their normal level. So why would one bet against them doing at least that much here?

Most of the media focus is on United’s former goldenboy Beckham making his return to Old Trafford for the first time since his move to Madrid and then to Galaxy. The last time Becks played a Champions League game at this famous ground, he bagged his team 2 goals. Wouldn’t it be something if he could score here on his return!

The odds of Beckham to score at any time are 6.50 (PaddyPower) and for those looking for a little fun bet, this is it. Be warned however, that there is a chance Beckham will start on the bench, with Seedorf preferred as a starter.

Despite losing Kaka over the summer, the forward line-up for Leonardo’s team is still very strong, with depth on the bench. Any bets on Ronaldinho, Inzaghi, Huntelaar, Borriello or the returning Pato to score would be good value. But seeing as there is a need for the team as a whole to score a bunch, I’m looking at two tasty team total bets at silly prices that we simply must get involved in.

THe Betting Verdict

Manchester United do not need to win this. They could draw and go through, they could even lose and go through. ManYoo might have got Rooney into the starting lineup, but I reckon United are desperate and will be praying he puts on another show.

Problem is, I think Rooney's knee injury, coupled with the level of defence possessed by Milan, will see him frustrated throughout. I see Milan giving it their all here, and with a game involving English champions priced at favourites, we’re lucky to see some lovely big odds on the talented opposition. I wouldn’t fault anyone sticking some money on a Milan win @ 6.00 (PaddyPower), but here are the recommended selections ...

The Statistics :

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00 (Pinnacle) main bet

Also, consider 2 great value bets :
Either AC Milan to score 2 or more goals @ 3.75 (PaddyPower)
Or AC Milan to score 3 or more goals @ 12.00 (PaddyPower)

HANDICAP BETTING :

AC Milan AH(+0.50) @ 2.20 (Bet365)