Tuesday 16th March 2010

Chelsea

Last 6 Chelsea Games At Home :
Champions League Only : W3-D3-L0 F13-A7

THIS IS IT! The biggest game of Chelsea’s season is just 24 hours away with a place in the last 8 of the Champions League up for grabs.

Chelsea host Inter in the second leg in this round of 16 tie trailing 2-1 from the first leg, a leg truth be told Chelsea could say they were a little hard done by to of lost. In the first leg the Blues did what very few teams have been able to do at the San Siro and that is have more of the ball than the home side but they gave up two chances and both were excellently converted by Inter.

That’s just football you say? Well the hard done by bit is the Kalou incident, through one on one taken down straight red and pen you say? Well no, no pen and Inter went on to win. In these huge matches’ events like this are crucial especially if you are on the wrong side of one and I for one feel it could cost Chelsea.

Onto the stats, Chelsea has faced 4 very good opponents in their last 6 home games (Athletico Madrid, Barcelona, Liverpool and Juventus) along with Porto who and APOEL who are decent sides. Now what is a little worrying is that of the “big 4” that I’ve singled out Chelsea won only 2 of them games (Juventus 1-0 and Madrid 4-0), whilst drawing 4-4 and 1-1 with Liverpool and Barcelona respectively.

On Tuesday night Chelsea must win, if they don’t they are out, against Juventus they needed to win and they did but against Barcelona a late goal killed their Champions League campaign for another year as they were held 1-1.

It’s a split of 3 wins and 3 draws for the London club so it’s hard to back them based on recent form, Inter are a high calibre of opposition who I’d say are as strong as Liverpool were last season. In that game however, Chelsea won the away leg so it was Liverpool who came all guns blazing to the Bridge, this Inter side is likely to play counter attack football looking to contain first knowing a 0-0 gets them through.

Chelsea are likely to attack from the off in this one, they will want to get even in the tie as soon as possible which will bring Inter forward and here I think is where the game can fall into Chelsea’s hands. Chelsea has the weapons to take Inter apart but I’m not sure if tactically Ancelotti can beat Mourinho, 3 weeks ago we saw a great Chelsea performance which ultimately ended in defeat, this is a worrying sign for the Blues that despite playing well they still took nothing.

Team news is that Carvalho returns to the squad but given that Alex has been rock solid in the last two games we may see him start along side Terry. Ferreria is ineligible so Zhirkov will start at left back following his sub appearance at the weekend.

The real worry for Chelsea is in goal, Hilario and Cech are both out so Turnball starts, making his Champions League debut in this huge game. Will he buckle under the pressure? Who knows but I recall our third choice Hilario playing twice against Barcelona a few years back and Chelsea won so it shouldn’t be a problem. The rest of the side is likely to be the same as Saturday looking something like:

Predicted Chelsea Lineup :
Turnball, Zhirkov, Terry, Alex, Ivanovic, Mikel, Ballack, Lampard, Malouda, Anelka, Drogba.

Inter Milan

Last 6 Inter Milan Away Games :
Champions League Only : W1-D2-L3 F7-A11

The Special One has arrived along with his Inter Milan side looking to prevent the clean sweep of British sides advancing into the quarter finals when Chelsea hosts Inter on Tuesday night.

Currently leading 2-1, Mourinho’s men will be very confident that they can finish the job in London. I say very confident because they have a manager who basically assembled the current Chelsea team and has never lost at the Bridge. Yes this was with Chelsea and this is Inter a different side, but over the 3 and a half years of charge of the Blues he surely learnt many of the players weaknesses. Add this to his fine attention to detail and tactics, come Tuesday night Jose will have his team fully prepared for battle and will do whatever it takes to advance.

Looking at the away form it’s not that great for Inter with 1 win from 6 but as they don’t need to win only draw ill split it into win/draw v losses, this makes it a 3/3 split the same as Chelsea’s wins to not winning. Statistically this is a very close match up when looking at recent form, however the only downer for Inter is that when looking at their 3 defeats Barcelona 2-0, Man United 2-0 and Bremen 2-1 all of these opponents are of Chelsea’s level. Well Bremen a little less, but Barca/United away in Europe for me is as equal to Chelsea away, it’s going to be a tough game when the goings got tough Inter has lost.

Another problem for Inter is the mental block that has haunted them in recent years, this is a very sketchy angle I know but it must be mentioned. I think its some 5 years since Inter made it to the quarters, a bit like Real Madrid whoever the opponent Inter seems to crash out at this stage no matter what. Most of the team will have this in their minds and given that last year they came to England looking to beat Manchester United they left with nothing, going down 2-0. A repeat on Tuesday would mean an exit again for the Milan side, so something’s got to give, do they end their hoodoo or do they stand up and finally be counted?

Team news is that Inter will be without the injured trio of Thiago Motta (thigh), Marko Arnautovic (flu) and Mario Balotelli (knee). This means we are likely to see the same side that started the first leg with maybe Eto or Milito playing wide in a 5 man midfield, Stankovic, Zanetti and Cambiasso and Mariga are 4 huge engines for this side who just don’t stop running all game and if they can over power Chelsea’s midfield then they will certainly not lose this game.

A fear for Inter is that if they need to chase goals then they might be found out at the back, however with the likes of Sneijder in the side they certainly don’t lack creativity. At the back it will be Samuel and Lucio, both had huge games in the first leg and must stand up in London for the Milan side tomorrow night.

Predicted Inter Milan Lineup :
Julio Cesar; Maicon, Lucio, Matarazzi, Zanetti; Mariga Cambiasso Stankovic, Sneijder; Eto’o, Milito

The Betting Veridct :

I would love to see Chelsea win this and put this Mourinho hype to rest, but I feel that despite InterMilan not doing so well on the road against bigger big teams they are the most likely to advance.

Finally the Italians have something to hold onto and I think tactically Mourinho will have Inter set up perfectly.

As a result, come the end of the night it will be Inter Milan and Jose Mourinho and not Chelsea into the quarter finals.

The Pick :

Chelsea 2-2 Inter Milan

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Chelsea 58% - Draw 27% - Inter 15%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Inter Milan to Qualify 2.10 at Ladbrokes

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Inter Milan +1/2 Ball AH 2.40 at Bet365