English FA CUP
2010-05-15 - Chelsea vs Portsmouth
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football : England : FA Cup
Saturday, 15th May 2010 - Kickoff 3pm
It's the FA Cup final live on TV from Wembley, but the heady days of the 1960's and 1970's when that meant something special as long-gone - and this "Cup Final" looks to be a low-rater.
Perhaps it's the obviously disparity between the two sides, with Chelsea clearly 2-3 goals better than Postsmouth on an "average" performance basis.
Perhaps it's the fact the both sides have already been to Wembley in this competition this season, with each side playing their semi-final on the "hallowed turf" - which turned out to be another poor Wembley pitch.
Or perhaps it's just the fact that we can see the best football from the UK and Europe live on TV all the time now, and with the best will in the world, this game isn't even the best drawcard of the weekend - let alone a season highlight.
This game has "mis-match" written all over it.
Chelsea were deserved Premier League Champions this season, winning 27 of 38 league games, and scoring a staggering 103 goals in the process - underlined by the hammerings of Stoke City (7-0) and Wigan Athletic (8-0) in the final two home games of the season.
Portsmouth won just 7 games from 38, scored 34 goals, and finished rock-bottom of the Premier League without considering the 9 deducted points.
Head to Head
The head-to-head statistics are no better for the South Coast club, as Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 28 league and cup meetings with Portsmouth dating back to 1960 (W21, D7).
Chelsea registered a 7-1 aggregate score in completing the double over Portsmouth in the Premier League this season :
- 16 Dec 2009 Chelsea 2-1 Portsmouth
- 24 Mar 2010 Portsmouth 0-5 Chelsea
THE BETTING VERDICT
Logic suggests that Chelsea will win this match comfortably, by a multiple goal margin, and all the bookmaker odds point the same way.
If you're a Pompey fan then there is a touch of value in some of the bigger odds on Portmouth winning (specifically 16.10 at Pinnacle) but it will be hoping for a miracle result.
I've suggested three possible scores, and all of them fit into a range that suggests either a bet on Chelsea -1.5 goals (asian handicap) or Over 2.5 Total Goals would collect - and both markets are priced at around 1.60 (3/5).
If you must have a bigger priced bet then you could try a couple of correct score bets - but be warned as it's a bit of a mugs market with the bookmakers putting large over-rounds on the prices.
The Pick :
Chelsea 3-0 Portsmouth (or 3-1, 4-0)
BEST BETTING TIP :
If you want to have a wee punt offering a sizable return, you could choose a couple of correct scores from :- Chelsea 3-1 at 12.50 at Betsson
- Chelsea 3-0 at 7.50 at VCBet
- Chelsea 4-0 at 13.00 at Bodog
But - you'll need a slice of luck to go with those punts.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I'll take CHELSEA -1.5 goals at 1.60 at Ladbrokes as my main bet
