New Zealand v Serbia
FIFA : World Cup : International Warmup
Venue : Klagenfurt, Austria
Saturday, 29th May 2010 - Kickoff 5.15pm

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(Sunday, 30th May 2010 - Kickoff 3.15 NZT)

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New Zealand (FIFA Rank 78)

New Zealand started the same 11 players against Australia that had previously beaten Bahrain to qualify for the World Cup - showing that manager Ricki Herbert had identified that match against Australia as the key fixture of the first week build-up.

New Zealand conceded with the last kick of the game to lose 1-2 to Australia at the MCG, and now Herbert has indicated that this leg of the journey may see more opportunities for other players.

“We’ll make some changes personnel-wise but we won’t change tack on what we’ve though is the right process to follow. There’ll be some new players coming in but that will be around their performances rather than anything else.”

Two changes will be forced on Herbert. Vice-captain Tim Brown is recovering well after surgery on a broken shoulder sustained in the trans-Tasman friendly while Monday night’s goal scorer Chris Killen has returned to the UK on a fleeting visit to get married.

These changes will weaken the Oceania Champions.

Recent New Zealand Games :
03-03-2010 A v Mexico (FIFA : 17) L 0-2
24-05-2010 A v Australia (FIFA : 20) L 1-2

Serbia (FIFA Rank 15)

This will be Serbia's first build-up game for the World Cup, but Serbia have been active during the first part of the year and scored two solid 3-0 victories against fellow World Cup qualifiers Algeria and Japan.

I imagine that New Zealand were chosen as a good opponent by the Serbian management looking for a close physical comparision to Australia - and this would seem to be the case given the mid-week Trans-Tasman clash.

Serbia were very efficient in World Cup qualifying, especially against the smaller sides.

Serbia's record in Group Seven was 7-1-2, but if you take out the results against France (1-1 H, 1-2 A) and the final day loss to Lithuania when Serbia had already qualified then we see that Serbia won seven games straight against Austria (68), Romania (28), Lithuania (49) and the Faroe Islands (125).

Recent Serbia Games :
14-11-2009 A v Northern Ireland (FIFA : 56) W 1-0
18-11-2009 N v South Korea (FIFA : 47) W 1-0
03-03-2010 A v Algeria (FIFA : 30) W 3-0
07-04-2010 A v Japan (FIFA : 45) 3-0

All those wins against mid-strength opponents, usually by margins of 1-3 goals shows a quality side who is able to score frequently.

Match Analysis

The venue in Austria is significant, as it's 1000 metres above sea-level and allowing both sides to begin preparations for altitude training.

This is very important for New Zealand who will open their group against Slovakia in Rustenburg - at an altitude of 1500m - and this first match is probably the Kiwi's best chance of causing a surpise.

Experience from watching several of the COMNEBOL South American qualification games at high altitude, shows that these games quickly turn into a posession based game of slow build-up and quick strikes, with long range shooting also dangerous.

It's just impossible for teams to play the close man-marking, and pressing game for 90 minutes - the players cannot get enough oxygen in their lungs.

Unfortunately for New Zealand in this build-up fixture, Serbia are extremely strong technically, and it would not surprise me if the European side ended up with as much as 70% total possession during the game.

TEAM ANNOUNCEMENTS

New Zealand Line-up :
Mark Paston (GK), Tony Lochhead, Winston Reid, Ryan Nelsen (captain), Simon Elliott, Shane Smeltz, Leo Bertos, Rory Fallon, Tommy Smith, Chris Wood, Jeremy Christie.

NZL Substitutes :
Ben Sigmund, Ivan Viceleich, Andy Barron, Michael McGlinchey, Aaron Clapham, David Mulligan, Andrew Boyens, Jeremy Brockie, Cole Peverley, James Bannatyne (gk), Glen Moss (gk).

The Betting Verdict :

The build-up games that each side has played so far tell it all for me ...

New Zealand have played against two sides ranked in the top 20, and while the Kiwis have competed well - in the end they have been undone by the better technical skills of their opponents.

Serbia have played against four teams ranked betwen 30 and 60, all of whom are still more highly ranked than New Zealand, and the Serbs have beaten all four opponents without conceding a goal.

Additionally, the high altitude of the venue, and the recent plane trip halfway around the world will also count against the New Zealand side who will find it hard to keep energy levels up for the pressing game that they prefer.

One small glimmer of hope for the Kiwi's is that the size and power of the front three might cause some uncertainty in the Serbian defence - as New Zealand are a very different type of opposition to recent sides faced by the Serbs.

Still - I do think that Serbia will manage to score at least a couple of goals - and that should be enough to win the game

The Pick :

New Zealand 1-2 Serbia (or 1-3)

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

New Zealand 7% - Draw 13% - Serbia 80%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'd favour Serbia to win at prices above 1.30.

I had only expected to see 1.20 to 1.25 available.