Real Mallorca v Real Madrid
Football : Spain : La Liga
San Moix, Mallorca
Sunday 29th August 2010 - Kickoff 21.00 local

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Real Mallorca (5th)

Stunning home form (15-1-3 at San Moix) meant Mallorca enjoyed a champagne season last year and they only missed out on Champions League football by one goal and minutes.

Incredibly, this success was enjoyed despite a backdrop of financial problems at the club, which culminated in meltdown over the summer. Balancing the books has meant the departure of the coach and best players, including last years playmaker and goal-scorer. They have been even banned from the Europa league as they are in voluntary administration.

While Mallorca have brought in a respected coach in Danish legend Michael Laudrup, they haven't been able to replace the outgoing players or renew the loans of players like Valero and it is difficult to see how they can improve on their 1-4 defeat at home to Real Madrid at the end of last season.

Transfers in: Jonathan De Guzman (Feyenoord)

Transfers out: Aduriz (Valencia), Julio Alvarez (Tenerife), Mario Suárez (Atletico Madrid), Mattioni (Espanyol), Varela (Kasimpasa), , Xisco Hernández (Elche), Josemi

Real Madrid (2nd)

Like Barcelona, Real Madrid are always worth watching. Their glittering stars, swashbuckling style and disinterest in the defensive aspects of the game makes them football eye candy.

Well, they were.

Now Mourinho is in town. A strange decision.

Capello delivered success at Real Madrid but they got rid because they didn't like his pragmatic style of football. Now they want success again, so they have hired a manager who specialises in ruthlessly efficient and negative football. He will deliver success, but it will take a radical departure from Mourinho's usual style if he is to deliver it AND beautiful football. Will the demanding fans desperation to overcome Barcelona mean they can stomach Mourinho style?

The problem with punting on Real Madrid games is very much the same problem as punting on Barcelona games. They are fantastic games to watch as a fan of the game but their matches are so one sided it is incredibly difficult to identify and profit from any value in the betting markets. Like Barcelona, the only really safe strategy is to back them for the straight win each week, but margins are tiny so you won’t be getting rich anytime soon.

So much has changed at Madrid this summer that we need to get a good look at them before thinking about goal-scorer bets, handicaps, clean sheets etc. Madrid were always good for handicaps and goalscorers at home but Mourinho sides are infamously not as expansive, take time to grind opposition sides down, and rarely run up scores on anyone preferring to sit on a slender lead and see games out.

The draw HT/Chelsea FT bet was a profitable strategy when Mourinho was in residence at Stamford Bridge, so it might be worth keeping an eye on that. This bet would have been a winner in the Mallorca v Madrid game last season, as it would have been in 5 of Madrids 18 away games last year (25%), so at prices of 4.5 this looks a good value bet. However, this bet would only have won twice in Mourinho’s Inter away games last season which puts me off a bit here.

The handicap line for this game is set at -1.5 goals for Real Madrid. Madrid beat this line in 50% of their away games last season (including Mallorca away) making the shade of odds against prices look like value, but Mourinho's Inter only beat this line in 33% of their home and away games. It's too early to go either way on this.

Transfers in: Canales (Racing Santander), Di Maria (Benfica), Pedro Leon (Getafe), Khedira (Stuttgart), Carvalho (Chelsea), Ozil (Werder Bremen)

Transfers out: Marcos Alonso (Bolton), Metzelder, Raul (Schalke 04), Mosquera (Getafe), Marcos Alonso (Bolton), Guti (Besiktas), Rodrigo (Benfica)

The Betting Verdict

There is an obvious problem here, the usual style of Madrid is at odds with the new coach's style so we need a good look at them before coming to any strong conclusions as to how we can profit.

Mallorca are in financial meltdown and it is very difficult to see how they can improve on their 4-1 defeat at home to the Madrid last season. But this is opening day and they might not know how bad they are yet, giving them more of a chance than they might later in the year.

My main recommendation would therefore be Real Madrid to win @ 1.4.

The Statistics :

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Real Mallorca 10% - Draw 20% - Real Madrid 70%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

The bet: Take Real Madrid to win at 1.4 (interwetten)
Bet strength: 4/10