EURO 2012 BETTING PICK - ENGLAND V BULGARIA

Euro 2012

2010-09-03 - England vs Bulgaria

A Sports Betting Pick by Caged

England v Bulgaria
Football : International : EURO 2012 Qualifying
Venue : Wembley, London
Friday, 3rd September 2010, Kickoff 8pm

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England

England's World Cup, and their supposed world cup celebration parade / confidence building friendly with Hungary earlier in the month were unmitigated disasters.

In that Hungary match, it needed a Steven Gerrard freed up by the half time departure of Lampard to perform heroics and deliver a slender home 2-1 victory against the lowly ranked Magyars. The scoreline may as well have read Gerrard 2 Hungary 1 for all the contribution the rest of the team made.

Much has been made of the absence through injury of the high profile English names leading up to this opening European Championships qualifer with Bulgaria, but it might be a blessing in disguise given some of their performances in the national shirt of late.

Frank Lampard is an excellent footballer whose statistics and records speak for themselves, but there is strong evidence to suggest that England do better without him. From 2006 to 2010, England won 6 of 8 games when Gerrard played but Lampard didnt. This 75% win ratio drops to 40% when Lampard but not Gerrard plays, and 50% when they both play. The sample size isnt nearly big enough to be statistically robust, but it does lend weight to the argument that England might not necessarily be hamstrung by Lampard's absence.

At least England look to have solved the goalkeeping problem now with Joe Hart in such scintillating and confident form. But he may have his work cut out improving England's poor defensive record of late with Terry and Ferdinand missing out, especially when you look at the form, experience and ability of the players coming in to replace them.

Goals might be an issue at the other end of the pitch too, with most of the strikers in the squad either injured, out of form or unproven at this level. However England have a fantastic scoring record at Wembley and it would be a major surprise if they dont get at least one goal, especially if Gerrard and Walcott are given advanced roles.

I would suggest goalscorer punters may be wise to consider Gerrard and the in form Walcott (who may get a right wing role in a front 3) as offering some value in this market - but check the lineup first.

England Team news
Lampard, Terry and Ferdinand lead the high profile absentees, along with Bobby Zamora and Peter Crouch. Spurs forward Defoe and goalkeepers Foster and Carson are in the squad despite ongoing injury concerns.

Everyone swears Rooney is fit but performances and goalscoring record suggest otherwise.

Bulgaria

Bulgaria face up to life without enigmatic striker Dimitar Berbatov after he announced his retirment from international football in August. Whilst he is undoubtedly a talented and skilful player he did come in for a lot of criticism when statistics showed in a Bulgaria game last season he ran less yards in the match than the Bulgarian goalkeeper.

They do still have dangerous players in attacking positions, and they will be looking to former Atletico Madrid and Man City winger Martin Petrov (now of Bolton) and Valeri Bojinov of Parma to keep up a scoring record that looks quite handy, Bulgaria have gone to some tricky away venues and scored a goal.

Bulgaria failed to qualify for the World Cup out of a group that included Ireland and Italy. However they punched above their weight at home, and proved they can be resolute opponents away from home with some draws and narrow defeats in recent difficult competitive and friendly away matches.

A 442 formation proved a little too risky as the campaign wore on and they have tried a more tight and counter attacking 4231, which is how many expect them to play at Wembley. Their keeper is reputed to be a little dodgy though.

Bulgaria squad "
Goalkeepers: Nikolay Mihaylov (FC Twente), Vladislav Stoyanov (FC Sheriff)

Defenders: Zhivko Milanov (FC Vaslui), Ivan Ivanov (FC Alania Vladikavkaz), Zahari Sirakov (FC Amkar Perm), Iliyan Stoyanov (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Stanislav Manolev (PSV Eindhoven), Veselin Minev (PFC Levski Sofia)

Midfielders: Stanislav Angelov (FC Steaua Bucuresti), Chavdar Yankov (FC Rostov), Stiliyan Petrov (Aston Villa FC), Stanislav Genchev (FC Vaslui), Georgi Peev (FC Amkar Perm), Nikolai Dimitrov (Kasimpasa SK), Martin Petrov (Bolton Wanderers FC)

Forwards: Iliyan Mitsanski (1.FC Kaiserlsautern), Valeri Domovchiyski (Hertha BSC Berlin), Valeri Bozhinov (Parma FC), Martin Kamburov (Dalien Shide FC), Dimitar Rangelov (BV Borussia Dortmund), Ivelin Popov (PFC Litex Lovech)

Bulgaria recent results (competitive and friendly)
- v Russia away LOST 0-1
- v South Africa away draw 1-1
- v Belgium away draw 1-1
- v Poland away lost 0-2
- v Malta away won 4-1
- v Georgia home won 6-2
- v Cyprus away lost 1-4
- v Italy away lost 0-2
- v Ireland away draw 1-1
- v Switzerland away draw 1-1

Head to Head

England have never lost to Bulgaria and have a W2 D3 L0 record in England. The teams have only met eight times in total, the last time being a 2-0 home win in Euro 2000 qualifying.

The Betting Verdict

England are a side who are always worth opposing on the handicaps, especially when the squad has a cobbled together feel like it does now, but it is a brave man who opposes England at home against opponents ranked outside the top 10.

England also may be improved for Gerrard having a free hand to play his usual game. I was all set to back Bulgaria on the handicap but I wanted to see at least even money for them +1.5 goals, at 1.8 it just doesnt hold the same appeal.

Bulgaria seem to concede goals and England usually score at least two at home. Bulgaria are more than capable of scoring themselves against a patched up england defence that wasnt brilliant at full strength, Cole and Hart excepted.

With this in mind Im going to try over 2.5 goals.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :

Take Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 (pinnacle)