BRAGA v ARSENAL
Football : UEFA : Champions League
Tuesday, 23rd November 2010 - Kickoff 8:45pm.

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Arsenal travel to Portugal on Tuesday night trying to rid themselves of the memory a 2-3 defeat in the North London derby, and face an FC Braga side that need to win to stay in the hunt for a top two finish in Group H.

FC Braga (Portugal)

Braga are Champions League debutants this season, but have already played four European games at home with a couple of preliminary knockout fixtures, and have shown some form with wins over Celtic, Sevilla and Partizan Belgrade.

Braga were embarrased on MatchDay 1, at the Emirates Stadium in London, losing by a 6-0 scoreline in a game where we saw the worst of the Portuguese temperment - as the side just appeared to give up.

I do not expect that sort of display again, indeed there is a feeling that there are some reputations to rebuild, and if Braga get the first goal then a shock is possibly on.

Braga have not been preforming too well this season - they have 14 points from 11 league games, and have lost 8 times in all competitions (one more than ALL of last season), including their last game - a 1-2 defeat at Vitoria.

Braga Team News :
Only two long term injuries to mention.

Paulao has not played since sustaining a thigh problem against Olhanense on 23 October whilke the unfortunately named "Quim" ruptured his right Achilles tendon in pre-season training and is expected to be out until the new year.

Arsenal (England)

Arsenal? Pfffttt! I don't really want to talk about the second half of last weekend.

But suffice to say that the North London derby showed exactly what this Arsenal side is like this season hot-cold-and luke warm ... all in the same bloody game.

The Gunners away record is Europe is awful - quite frankly. Arsenal have won just once in their last six European trips and that was to group lightweights Partizan Belgrade.

Manager Arsene Wenger seems to be totally unable to get his side to play away from the Emirates - and the further that Arsenal travel the worse the performance is. Russia? Ukraine? Spain? We play poorly at all these venues. The last time Arsenal went to Portugal they lost 1-2 at Porto in a very light-weight performance.

The only thing that does bode well is that Arsenal have been showing better mettle on the road in domestic action - with a 4-2-1 record from 7 Premier League games - which is the best return of any side in England's top flight so far.

Arsenal Team News :
Gael Clichy (back), Thomas Vermaelen (Achilles), Manuel Almunia (elbow) and Abou Diaby (ankle) are all out, while Robin Van Persie is "rested" - FFS - he barely plays at all these days.

Nicklas Bendtner has a bit of a dodgy groin but travelled.

Did you know?

In 1921 Braga changed their team shirts from two large green and white vertical stripes and they took Arsenal's red-and-white colours as their inspiration.

Since then they have been known as Minho's Arsenalistas.

The Betting Verdict

Let's not beat around the bush - if you are a neutral and looking for the value then you have to take Braga to win at prices of 4.30+

Braga have won 3 of their 4 home games, while Arsenal have lost 4 of their last 5 away games - and you can get 4.30+ on the home win?? Fantastic value.

Remember that it does not suit Braga to play it cagey, the Portuguese side MUST win to keep hopes alive of progressing to the knockout phase - and attacking Arsenal is the best way to do that.

But .. if, like me, you don't want to bet against the Arsenal, then assuming that you want no part of an odds-on price for the away win - we have to look further afield.

You could take a look at the goalscorer market as most of Arsenal's away games have seen goals at both ends - so Over 2.5 goals looks likely (well to me anyway) - espesically given the situation.

If you want a better price then you might even want to consider backing an individual player to score. I like the look of :
- Fabregas to score anytime @ 3.50 at Unibet
- Walcott to score anytime @ 4.00 at Unibet

I'd prefer to go for Fabregas - simply for the spot-kick potential as much as anything else - but Theo's pace could easily earn him a goal here.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Plenty of goals - well at least 3 anyway.

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Braga 40% - Draw 27% - Arsenal 33%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Value Bet : Consider Braga to win at 4.30+ ... this is the best bet.

Main Bet (If you're a Gooner) : Try Over 2.5 Goals as the likely winner that's not a negative bet.

Consider :
- Fabregas to score anytime @ 3.50 at Unibet
- Walcott to score anytime @ 4.00 at Unibet