ALMERIA V REAL MADRID
Football : Spain : Primera
Sunday 16th January 2011

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We had another winner last weekend backing Real Madrid to win by 1 and 2 goals, and this strategy has proved very profitable of late.

Madrids 3-1 win over neighbours Atletico in midweek, coming from a goal down, was the 5th time in 6 games they have won by one of these scorelines.

Ive said it before but Ill say it again. Mourinho has made his mark on Madrid. They arent really fluid or exciting, but Mourinho teams generally arent. They get the job done, and so backing them to win by 'Mourinho' scorelines is +EV.

However this time they travel to 2nd bottom Almeria. No wins at home, with the third worst defence. And they lost 8-0 at home to Barcelona.

The big question then is whether Real Madrid will roll over Almeria like Barcelona did. That defeat cost Juan Manuel Lillo his job, and his replacement Oltra appears to have steadied the ship.

Almeria may have lost 4 from 6 under the new man, but thats to be expected of relegation candidates Almeria, and they only lost by more than 2 goals once in that time. They also have a win at the Sanchez Piquain to their name. Its scoring goals that is the biggest concern, just 16 goals all season.

What Almeria do have is a decent record at home to Madrid. A 1-2 reverse last year was preceded by a draw and a win. But that Almeria side was better than this one. I watched Almeria in the Copa Del Rey in midweek and they looked really short of quality.

Under Oltra, Almeria have been a bit more gung ho, and that is not good when facing Real Madrid. Theyve been conceding goals regularly under the new coach and will be tired after 3 games in 10 days. Real have had the same schedule but have much greater resources to deal with it.

Real Madrid can fill their boots here if they want, and I suspect they may want after Barca got 8 here.

The question then is how to get on the side of Madrid and get some value? Madrid -1.5 is an option at 1.75, but another bet I like is Ronaldo to score 2 or more goals at 3. This has occured 8 times in 18 league games this season, and the boy wonder will be licking his lips against Almeria's porous defence, particularly down their weak left hand side.

The Betting Verdict :

Take Cristiano Ronaldo to score 2 goals or more at 3

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Almeria 0 Real Madrid 3

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Cristiano Ronaldo to score 2 goals or more at 3.00 at Victor Chandler