EURO 2012 BETTING PICK - LITHUANIA V SPAIN

Euro 2012

2011-03-29 - Lithuania vs Spain

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Lithuania v Spain
Football : Euro 2012 Qualifier
Tuesday 29 March 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm

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Lithuania

Lithuania will have built some confidence from their 2-0 win over Poland over the weekend, but they will also be more than aware that Spain will be a different and tougher prospect to break down.

Group I is wide open if you remove the current European and World Champions and there are three teams that will be fighting out for 2nd place and a potential Play Off berth, one of those being Lithuania. They are 4th in the Group after gaining 4 points, and are only 2 points behind the Czech Republic in 2nd having played a game less.

Lithuania may also feel more comfortable in the Group knowing they will not have to face Spain again after this game. They have already drawn with Scotland at home, while gaining an impressive 0-1 win in the Czech Republic. However, they were beaten 3-1 in Spain.

The big news coming out of Lithuania around this game is the state of the playing surface in Kaunas. The pitch has been criticised to such an extent that even the HOME players are worried about its condition.

Spain

Spain took a huge step towards the Euro 2012 tournament next Summer where they will be defending the title they took in 2008. They were made to work a little harder than I imagined when coming from a goal down to beat the Czech Republic at home as David Villa became the leading scorer in Spain's history.

That win over the Czechs mean Spain have taken maximum points from their first 4 games and are already 6 points clear of their nearest rivals. Suffice to say, they have one foot into Poland and Ukraine, and another win here will surely make it academic.

The Spanish have won both away games they have played, 0-4 in Liechtenstein and 2-3 in Scotland. The latter of those games saw Spain lose a 2 goal lead before a late goal from Fernando Llorente secured the win.

Spain have also been so concerned about the pitch at Kaunas that there are rumours they have asked for a UEFA official to confirm the playing surface is acceptable. There are concerns in their camp that the pitch could lead to serious injury, and you can be sure that Barcelona and Real Madrid will be watching on with a hint of concern before big Champions League and La Liga games to come.

Head to Head

The nations were also paired in the qualifying campaign for the 2006 World Cup when both games were tight affairs.

Lithuania lost in Spain 1-0, but did manage to hold their more illustrious opponents 0-0 here at home.

Prediction

With all the issues surrounding the playing surface in Kaunas, you would have to say that the 1.28 odds on the away win are far too short to be considering, even though Spain are the most likely winners of the game.

It doesnt sound like the playing surface will allow Spain to play as fluently as they may like and this leads into my pick for the game. I think we may see Spain having a hard time to break down the Lithuanian side that will work hard and so I feel the Draw HT-Spain FT option may have some legs.

Lithuania already showed they can defend well when holding Spain to 0-0 at half time in the reverse game at Salamanca, and here they will be aided by a poor pitch to stop Spain playing their free flowing passing game.

The team has kept clean sheets in their first two games with Scotland and the Czech Republic, but I feel Spain may just have enough to secure the win here. It may take a little bit of time to come, so I will make a minimum unit pick on Draw-Spain here.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

I'll back Draw HT-Spain FT @ 4.5 Various (1 UNIT)

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